Trade Analysis: As Gold Goes, So Might Bitcoin

Plus BTC Post Election Bank Analysis

Housekeeping: This is a transcribed unpublished Podcast. (audio at bottom)

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What is This Post?

Recently Bitcoin has had several events from different disciplines converge in bullish fashion.

1) Market Structure (new clearing rules),

2) Eventwise (Trump Election, MSFT),

3) Secular (Anti-Goldilocks), and

4) Fund Flow behavior ( Mac-D fund rules)..

5) Technically, an apparent Cup/Handle formation triggered

Most of these things happened slowly over the last 3 months. The cup/handle formation gives the risk/reward not unlike the one Gold just demolished to the upside.

So, a trade was put on (with plenty of room for profit and loss) worth sharing. The parallels to Gold listed above are striking on a technical, fund flow, and secular level. The asset specific reasons (Market structure, Trump Event ) are the wild cards. Win or Lose here is the recipe.

Select Subsections: (1300 words)

1. Introduction: Bitcoin as a Trade, Not a Belief System

2. Cup and Handle: Why Technical Analysis Matters Here

3. Second Reason: Reduced Clearance Time for Shorting Bitcoin

4. Gold’s Fingerprint and Its Influence on Bitcoin

5. Macro Picture: Climbing Bond Yields and Inflation Response

6. Zoltan Pozsar’s Insight on Fighting Inflation

7. Bitcoin’s Path Forward: Institutional and Sovereign Buying

8. Final Note: Bitcoin and Gold as Reflections of the Anti-Goldilocks Era

9. Bonus: Bank Analysis