Trumponomics 2.0: Mercantilism, Corporatism, and Higher Gold
If Trump is Right, Weaker Dollar; If Trump is Wrong, Weaker Dollar
This podcast is a combination high-level textbook analysis and institutional-style handicapping of expected market effects. The World and the USA have been on this Mercantilist/Protectionist path for the past 8 years starting with Trump 2016. Biden's 2020 way is completely unsustainable.Trump 2024 is the logical and necessary next step.
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Key Timestamps
3:20- Gold New ATH
6:50- Stocks Big Tech/Small Cap risk
10:05-Trumponomics 2.0 effects in detail
Gold Market Analysis
New All-Time Highs: Gold breached new highs, settled at peak levels
Buyer Profile:
Funds: Both American and overseas
Bullion Banks: Covering shorts, selling silver to align with gold purchases
Market Dynamics:
Bonds: Rallied but insufficient to explain gold's 2% rise
Dollar: Unchanged overall but rallied earlier, affecting gold
US Investors: Increased attention to silver, impacting market moves
Gold's Future Behavior: Predictive of future bond and dollar behavior
Stock Market Dynamics
Market Bifurcation: Big tech rallying, small caps underwater
Investor Behavior: Shifting from big tech to small caps due to interest rate expectations
Potential Scenarios:
Broad Market Rally: All stocks rise
1987 Scenario: Money moves out of big companies, reducing overall market investment
Stock Market Mechanics:
Economic Changes: Affecting company performance and earnings
Trumponomics 2.0 Overview
Key Elements:
Mercantilism: Sound money, high tariffs, less financialization
Classic Corporatism: Competitive deregulation, innovation focus
Protectionist Tariffs: Higher import taxes, consumption tax effect
Corporate Tax Cuts: Lower rates to attract companies
Economic Impact:
Inflationary: Initially, predicting weaker dollar, higher commodities
Market Effects: Bullish for stocks, complex bond yield impacts
Gold Standard Considerations: Potential but unlikely, influencing gold prices
Additional Points
Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell to complete term until May 2026
Corporate Tax: Reduction to 15% aimed at repatriating offshore funds
TikTok: No longer planning to ban
Treasury Secretary: Jamie Dimon considered for the role
Foreign Policy: Less commitment to Taiwan defense, favorable stance towards Saudi Arabia
Tariffs History: Protectionism encouraged domestic industry growth
Conclusion
Market Reactions: Driven by Trumponomics, perceived changes influencing investments
Future Projections: Weaker dollar expected, regardless of policy success