GFN – ZURICH: UBS has reduced silver price forecasts across all time horizons, citing a dramatic contraction in the projected 2026 market deficit and persistent weakness in investment demand that narrows near-term upside significantly.GoldFix is a reader-supported publication.
A long timeframe consolidation has to be seriously considered. ~50% of the technical analysts I follow agree, which means ~50% disagree. My bias says this is an 'old world' pre-2022 view, perhaps even an attempt to shake out the weak. My bias has a 50/50 chance of being wrong. So, how to react? For me, it'll probably be to minimize use of leverage, continue stacking bullion and miners, and just wait.
I agree with this analysis, although I feel there is a floor. If it went to 61 or 50, it would be such a buy opportunity now it would be a no brainer. :)
Interesting! If we go by the Silver Institute's 2026 survey they have a 76-million ounce deficit. Now it is hard to know who is telling the truth or how solid these numbers are since the Silver Institute has cooked the book. Last year they just altered the numbers from previous years without explanation. We know that London ran out, and China and New York were back stopping them, but now China has swung from an exporter to an importer, and silver is leaving New York. If there is going to be 76-million ounces, or more, consumed over what is produced this year, then the relevant question is, where is the silver it coming from?
Is this a free market or a bank run monopoly game?
Now if the competing products for photovoltaics (oil/gas) and EVs (gasoline, but oil& gas for manufacturing) were not going through the roof this'd make sense. Anyone think posponing an EV purchase or a solar array would be a wise choice right now?
There is a theory that the Admin would like a very prolonged crisis in order for US treasuries/USD to be the cleanest of the dirty shirts. Maybe. They don't seem to be in any hurry to exit right now.
A long timeframe consolidation has to be seriously considered. ~50% of the technical analysts I follow agree, which means ~50% disagree. My bias says this is an 'old world' pre-2022 view, perhaps even an attempt to shake out the weak. My bias has a 50/50 chance of being wrong. So, how to react? For me, it'll probably be to minimize use of leverage, continue stacking bullion and miners, and just wait.
I agree with this analysis, although I feel there is a floor. If it went to 61 or 50, it would be such a buy opportunity now it would be a no brainer. :)
Interesting! If we go by the Silver Institute's 2026 survey they have a 76-million ounce deficit. Now it is hard to know who is telling the truth or how solid these numbers are since the Silver Institute has cooked the book. Last year they just altered the numbers from previous years without explanation. We know that London ran out, and China and New York were back stopping them, but now China has swung from an exporter to an importer, and silver is leaving New York. If there is going to be 76-million ounces, or more, consumed over what is produced this year, then the relevant question is, where is the silver it coming from?
Is this a free market or a bank run monopoly game?
Now if the competing products for photovoltaics (oil/gas) and EVs (gasoline, but oil& gas for manufacturing) were not going through the roof this'd make sense. Anyone think posponing an EV purchase or a solar array would be a wise choice right now?
There is a theory that the Admin would like a very prolonged crisis in order for US treasuries/USD to be the cleanest of the dirty shirts. Maybe. They don't seem to be in any hurry to exit right now.
so this would crater the silver miner boom and crush the silver bull? not sure now about much run room in pslv, for example
Or perhaps indicate a prolonged accumulation opportunity, similar to mid 2023-2025, but at this new level?