"US Election Not Over Until Jan. 2025"- Analysis

The Election Will Be Contested

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

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TL;DR

• The Election Will Be Contested- increasing uncertainty as the polls close

• RFK Jr is on path to be a real spoiler a la Ross Perot

• July Consumer Confidence will be Key for Biden

Intro:

TS Lombard initiates coverage of the US Presidential election with a seemingly bold statement (with which we happen to agree) but upon closer inspection and in context of recent elections, is actually not an outlier at all. More analysts should be this objective with their work.

We have said several times elections are supposed to bring certainty. This year that is not likely to happen. (e.g. Gore/Bush, Trump/HRC, Trump/Biden)

From: Biden vs. Trump: 2024 Electoral Landscape is Ugly

“THERE IS NO OUTCOME TO THE 2024 ELECTION THAT WILL LEAD TO CALM SOCIAL ORDER, CALM POLITICS, CALM IN THE STREETS AND THEREFORE “NORMAL” MARKETS IN THE WAKE”

TS Lombard puts a finer point on why this is true

US ELECTION: IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL JAN 2025

by Grace Fan / Steven Blitz / Christopher Granville

This election will not be over for a while.

In this initial note we take stock of the top issues (primarily economic) on voters’ minds and highlight the biggest wild cards that could swing the race – both in the form of third-party candidates led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and, in the post-election period, in the form of likely Inauguration Day.