Washington’s Naval Pivot Drives Sharpest Oil Rally of 2026
GFN – LONDON:
Oil prices surged sharply at the start of the week after the United States threatened to block maritime traffic linked to Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over global energy supply disruptions and market stability.
Crude markets rallied in early trading, with ICE Brent rising more than 9% and NYMEX WTI exceeding $105 per barrel, following the collapse of weekend negotiations between the United States and Iran, according to market data and analyst reports. The United States government signaled plans to restrict maritime access to Iranian ports beginning Monday, while permitting transit through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels not calling at Iran, a move that has heightened uncertainty around one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
“Energy markets are reacting to elevated geopolitical risk and the potential for constrained supply flows through a key transit corridor,” said ING Groep NV in a commodities note authored by Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson.
European natural gas prices also advanced significantly, with front-month TTF futures climbing nearly 18% to above EUR51 per megawatt-hour, reflecting concerns over liquefied natural gas disruptions, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained suspended for more than a month, affecting an estimated 20% of global LNG supply. The escalation follows weeks of conflict in the region, contributing to a sustained rise in European gas benchmarks since late February.
Positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicated mixed sentiment across oil markets, with speculators reducing net long positions in ICE Brent while increasing exposure to NYMEX WTI, signaling divergent expectations amid heightened volatility. At the same time, Baker Hughes reported that the United States oil rig count remained unchanged at 411 as of April 10, with total rig activity below year-ago levels, suggesting limited near-term supply response from domestic producers.
In metals markets, aluminum prices reached a four-year high on the London Metal Exchange as supply concerns intensified, supported by the Middle East’s role in global production and elevated energy costs impacting smelter economics. Meanwhile, broader industrial metals weakened as rising energy prices weighed on global growth expectations, while agricultural commodities such as wheat declined amid improved supply outlooks and shifting speculative positioning.
The developments come as market participants await updated supply and demand guidance from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with geopolitical risk increasingly shaping commodity price formation and cross-asset positioning.