GoldFixPM: A Day for the Ages

PM Posts |

Housekeeping: This is the PM GoldFix post combining AM emails with additional intraday posts.

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Contents

1. Morning Rundown:

2. Macro-Economics/Commodities:

3. Geopolitics/Elections:

4. Founders:

5. (NEW) GOLDFIX Intraday Chat

6. Market Recap

Morning Rundown:

Earthquake: Dollar Crisis Spikes Gold $100 to $3073

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Macro-Economics/Commodities:

BOA Says "Bonds don’t make sense with [if] stagflation"

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Geopolitics/Elections:

China is Prepared To Properly Decouple This Time

RABO: "The US would effectively cut China out of the Dollar system"

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Founders:

Founders AM: Gold up Almost $100 now

Technical Comment: There might be only one now

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(NEW) GOLDFIX Intraday Chat:

Intraday analysis, commentary, and observations in threaded form

Market Recap:

Good afternoon as long as it's busy like this with geopol events, maybe we'll do semi-regular end of day recaps. But first, please allow us a moment of conceit

What does Trump do every time? We said, he's initially a bully. He’s a bad cop to his friends and he's a good cop to his enemies initially. But there's a point where he flips his script. He turns and says to the people that he's supposed to be friendly with and says: “Hey I'll hook you up no hard feelings”. And then he turns badder-cop on China. Every time that's what he does in negtiations. Every damn time.

Will it work? Depends on the bad-cop tactical tools he has now. Today’s was a smart play as shall see.

At 1:18 PM Donald Trump posted on his platform that he would suspend reciprocal tariffs on any country that did not retaliate against his most recent tariffs. At that moment with gold up $100, bonds extremely weak, and stocks in the toilet.. everything reversed.

Essentially the tactic is to isolate China while making sure none of the other countries blind-side the US with their own retaliatory tariffs.

Trump is implicitly saying to the rest of the world if China pays these tariffs you won't have to. That's the unspoken comment.

Gold has backed off the highs but it's still up over $80 right now. Bonds have backed off their lows but the yields are still up 12 basis points.

• Stocks are screaming higher the SP500 is up almost eight per cent

• the Vix is down 31 per cent putting it at 35.7

• bitcoin is up 7 per cent,

• and tech stocks are up about 10%.

• Interestingly miners are up about 9% percent using the gdx as a guide.

The world is now in on a trade war where we're using our tactical bullets to offset their strategic plans.

We add tariffs, China adds tariffs.

We add more tariffs China sells more US Treasuries.

We prop ups our stocks by removing tariffs on everyone else…. and China does????

Stay tuned.