Weekly: Russian Nesting Dolls | Barrick Gold
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SECTIONS
Market Summary: weekly recap
Technicals: active trading levels
Podcasts: GoldFix and Bitcoin
Calendar: next week
Charts: related markets
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Analysis
Research
1. Market Summary
If you believe that the West can craft sanctions that maximize pain for Russia, while minimizing financial stability risks in the West, you could also believe in unicorns.- Z. Pozsar contributing architect to the 2008 GFC bailout
The main drivers of US markets this week were Geo-political events in Europe. It would help to run down global markets to give what is happening in the US context. War, sanctions, and economic isolation may seem like it is working. But in a global economy, it all scales up into something bigger left unchecked.
US equities had a tough week, technically seeing much more volatility than Europeans, chopping up and down 2-3% every day, and unable to hold any gains that were achieved during the pumps.
Nasdaq was the week's biggest loser.
SPACs, ARKK, Unprofitable Tech got destroyed
This is the most fearful the market has been since the lows of March/April 2020 collapse.
The Russian invasion gives the Fed perfect cover to deflate the asset bubble. Therefore we don't expect them to materially do anything to protect against this plunge until the S&P gets to 3800-4000.
Sectors
Energy and Utes outperformed
HY spreads at their widest since Nov 2020 indicative of stock risk
Financials were destroyed
Commodities
see chart section for graphics
Bitcoin managing to cling to some of the post-Putin gains (but fell back below $40k).
Biggest jump in Spot Commodity prices since Sept 1974
Gold saw more safe-haven flows
It's likely no wonder as energy costs in Europe exploded this week to a record high (with EU NatGas trading at an equivalent $370 barrel of oil).
Gas prices at the pump exploded higher this week - the 2nd biggest jump ever - and look set to go even further given the price of crude and wholesale gasoline. Zerohedge Source
Bonds
Bonds were bid on the week
The yield curve collapsed this week
Stresses are starting to show in the financial system with FRA/OIS spreads blowing out
Chart Via Zerohedge
The FRA/OIS spread reflects how comfortable banks are lending money to each other. The reason it is of importance is because a large component of it is European based. It measures how cheap or expensive it will be for banks to borrow in the future as tied to London rates (LiBOR). The higher it is, the less comfortable they are transacting with each other. It is a measure of interbank trust. Right now it is about 50% of the peak we had in March/April 2020.
GoldFix Friday WatchList:
Complete Watchlist Here
2. Technical Analysis
Report Excerpts Courtesy MoorAnalytics.com
GoldFix Note: Do not attempt to use price levels without symbol explanations or context. Moor sends 2 reports daily on each commodity they cover. The attached are non-actionable summaries.
Gold
TECHNICALLY BASED MARKET ANALYSIS AND ACTIONABLE TRADING SUGGESTIONS Moor Analytics produces technically based market analysis and actionable trading suggestions. These are sent to clients twice daily, pre-open and post close, and range from intra-day to multi-week trading suggestions. www.mooranalytics.com
Bitcoin
Energy
Go to MoorAnalytics.com for 2 weeks Gold, Oil, and Bitcoin reports free
3. GoldFix and Bitcoin Podcasts
4. Calendar
Some upcoming key data releases and market events.
MONDAY, MARCH 7
3 pm Consumer credit Jan. $24 billion $19 billion
TUESDAY, MARCH 8
6 am NFIB small-business index Feb. 97.4 97.1
8:30 am Foreign trade deficit Jan. -$87.3 billion -$80.7 billion
10 am Wholesale inventories (revision) Jan. 0.8% 0.8%
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 9
10 am Job openings Jan. 11 million 10.9 million
10 am Quits Jan. -- 4.4 million
THURSDAY, MARCH 10
8:30 am Initial jobless claims March 5 220,000 215,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Feb. 26 -- 1.48 million
8:30 am Consumer price index Feb. 0.7% 0.6%
8:30 am Core CPI Feb. 0.5% 0.6%
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year Feb. 7.8% 7.5%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year) Feb. 6.4% 6.0%
1 pm Real domestic nonfinancial debt (SAAR) Q4 -- -2.8%
1 pm Real household wealth (SAAR) Q4 -- 1.4%
2 pm Federal budget deficit Feb. -- -$311 billion
FRIDAY, MARCH 11
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (preliminary) March 62.3 62.8
10 am Five-year inflation expectations (preliminary) March -- 3.0%
Main Source: MarketWatch
5. Charts
Russian Ruble
European Nat Gas- in oil terms, over $350 dollars
Dollar Index
Gold
Silver
Wheat
Charts by GoldFix using TradingView.com
Zen Moment:
Disclaimer:
Nobody is telling you to do anything here. Anybody who tells you to do something without first intimately knowing your personal situation is irresponsible at best and manipulative at worst. Anyone who acts on other people’s opinions without first doing an inventory of their own situation shouldn’t be surprised if they lose money.
6. Premium: Barrick Gold
Some takeaways of a recent interview Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow
They intend to step into Canada aggressively
In 2021, Barrick announced a new joint venture with the PNG (Papua New Guinea) government for the Porgera mine, where the Government will own 51% and Barrick and Zijin Mining 49%.
GOLD is guiding to stable gold output in the 4.5-5.0Moz range for 10 years, with a potential growth spike in 7-8 years.
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7. Premium: Analysis
Premium beneath the divider
Technician- Stock Bottoming?
Legendary technician, Goldfix subscribers know him from previous metals reports, lays out why he is not doom and gloom on stocks
Bank- Geopolitics Likely to Add Inflationary Pressure:
Most of what we’ve been reading has been playing down inflation risks form the Russian invasion. This counterbalances that somewhat
Bank- CTA Report for Metals and Oil
Technician- Uranium Technical Thesis and Update, Copper Breaking Out
These are not Goldfix opinions. But we read and note them for our own decision process. We provide, you decide. Sunday Founders discussions are where we comment on the validity of these type of reports