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Weekly: "The World is Short Commodities, China is Long"- JPMorgan

Weekly: "The World is Short Commodities, China is Long"- JPMorgan

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VBL
Feb 20, 2022
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GoldFix
GoldFix
Weekly: "The World is Short Commodities, China is Long"- JPMorgan
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Housekeeping:  Due to growing time (50 hrs/wk), research costs, and value we believe it helps create,  prices cannot continue at this level much longer. Trading Tip:  If you like GoldFix, lock it in soon pls. :)

Founder’s Class :3 p.m. SUNDAY. CoT and Market prep chat. Zoom Link here: Password: (usual one). See you then!


SECTIONS

  1. Market Summary: weekly recap

  2. Technicals: active trading levels

  3. Podcasts: GoldFix and Bitcoin

  4. Charts: related markets

  5. Calendar: next week

    Premium divider

  6. Precious Research and Analysis

  7. Premium Report


1. Market Summary

Friday was a microcosm of the week with headlines dominating swings as traders focused on what Powell will do, what Putin may or may not have done, what the US/NATO will do, and what chaos they will unleash next. The best outcome, we fear, is Ukraine becoming a Syria-like quagmire in which Pro Russian citizens flee east, and pro Western ones migrate west.

  • The Dow and Nasdaq were the week's biggest losers.

  • This week's weakness took the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq down to YTD closing lows from Jan 27

Sectors

  • MajorTech ( FAANGMAN) did poorly again, with Amazon, which recently announced a share buyback, the important exception #1

  • Consumer defensives did very well #2

  • Energy did poorly, more poorly than the commodity itself #3

  • Gold stocks did very well

  • ROKU crashed 22% on Friday as duration stocks continue take it on the chin as observed in our Jan 8th premium report.

Commodities

see chart section for graphics

  • Gold rose for the 3rd straight week, over 3% - its best week since May 2021, rising back above $1900, highest since June 2021

  • This is the best 3-week jump in gold since Aug 2020.

  • Oil suffered its first weekly loss of the year with prospects of Iranian oil coming online won out over Ukrainian fears.

  • Crypto had another tough week as its correlation with big-tech continued to rise- see podcast section for comment on why that is growing

Bonds

The week was a roller coaster for Treasury yields as early weakness gave way to an aggressive bid in the latter half of the week. This reflected the 2 drivers in markets now. Inflation driving yields up, and Ukraine fears driving them down.

  • The Russia headlines sent rate-hike expectations lower for March.

  • Rate-hike expectations with the market now pricing in less than 6 hikes by year-end and only a 25% chance of a 50bps hike in March.

***Note: This weekend JPMorgan changed their own forecast to 9 hikes despite this. See beneath the fold***

GoldFix Friday WatchList:

Complete Watchlist Here


2. Technical Analysis

Report Excerpts Courtesy MoorAnalytics.com

GoldFix Note: Do not attempt to use price levels without symbol explanations or context. Moor sends 2 reports daily on each commodity they cover. The attached are non-actionable summaries.

Gold

TECHNICALLY BASED MARKET ANALYSIS AND ACTIONABLE TRADING SUGGESTIONS

TECHNICALLY BASED MARKET ANALYSIS AND ACTIONABLE TRADING SUGGESTIONS Moor Analytics produces technically based market analysis and actionable trading suggestions. These are sent to clients twice daily, pre-open and post close, and range from intra-day to multi-week trading suggestions. www.mooranalytics.com

Bitcoin

Energy

Go to MoorAnalytics.com for 2 weeks Gold, Oil, and Bitcoin reports free


3. GoldFix and Bitcoin Podcasts

Active Trading comment…

Twitter avatar for @VlanciPictures
VBL @VlanciPictures
Clip: screw correlations and what should happen today
3:14 PM ∙ Feb 17, 2022

Bitcoin: The Normies are taking over…

Twitter avatar for @VlanciPictures
VBL @VlanciPictures
Ukraine: Careful what you wish for. Broad adoption means dumb adoption #Bitcoin
3:54 PM ∙ Feb 19, 2022
  • GoldFix Broadcasts HERE

  • Bitcoin Podcasts HERE


4. Charts

Rectangles reflect behavior during Ukraine headline dominance

Dollar Index

Bond Yields

Gold

Silver

Crude Oil

Bitcoin Futures

Charts by GoldFix using TradingView.com


5. Calendar

Some upcoming key data releases and market events.

MONDAY, FEB. 21 Presidents Day holiday - None scheduled

TUESDAY, FEB. 22

  • 9 am S&P Case-Shiller home price index (year-over-year change) Dec. -- 18.8%

  • 9 am FHFA home price index (year-over-year change) Dec. -- 17.6%

  • 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) Feb. 56.0 55.5

  • 9:45 am Markit services PMI (flash) Feb. 52.2 51.2

  • 10 am Consumer confidence index Feb. 109.5 113.8

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 23 None scheduled

THURSDAY, FEB. 24

  • 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Feb. 19 234,000 248,000

  • 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Feb. 12 -- 1.59 million

  • 8:30 am Gross domestic product revision (SAAR) Q4 6.9% 6.9%

  • 8:30 am Gross domestic income (SAAR) Q4 -- 5.8%

  • 10 am New home sales Jan. 806,000 811,000

FRIDAY, FEB. 25

  • 8:30 am Nominal personal income Jan. -0.3% 0.3%

  • 8:30 am Nominal consumer spending Jan. 1.5% -0.6%

  • 8:30 am PCE inflation (monthly) Jan. -- 0.4%

  • 8:30 am Core inflation (monthly) Jan. 0.5% 0.5%

  • 8:30 am PCE inflation (year-over-year) Jan. -- 5.8%

  • 8:30 am Real disposable income Jan. -- -0.2%

  • 8:30 am Real consumer spending Jan. -- -1.0%

  • 10 am UMich consumer sentiment (final) Feb. 61.6 61.7

  • 10 am 5-year inflation expectations (final) Feb. -- 3.1%

  • 10 am Pending home sales Jan. 0.8% -3.1%

Main Source: MarketWatch

Zen Moment:

Twitter avatar for @ladbible
LADbible @ladbible
I don't think he's coming back...
8:00 PM ∙ Feb 19, 2022
753Likes62Retweets

Disclaimer:

Nobody is telling you to do anything here. Anybody who tells you to do something without first intimately knowing your personal situation is irresponsible at best and manipulative at worst. Anyone who acts on other people’s opinions without first doing an inventory of their own situation shouldn’t be surprised if they lose money.

6. Premium: Precious/Feature Analysis

At Bottom: The world is short commodities. China is not.- Analysis

7. Premium: Research Report

At Bottom:

  • Rate Hikes: We now look for the Fed to hike 25bp at each of the next nine meetings

  • Rate Hikes: Consumers keep spending

  • Inflation: is accelerating across Western Europe and EM Asia.

  • Oil: A de-escalation of tensions with Russia and a successful resolution of the Iran deal should push oil prices down toward our $86/bbl

  • Oil: confrontation has the potential to push oil to perhaps to $120/bbl


***Premium Beneath the Fold***


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