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What The Fed is Thinking Now.

Full CPI Prep and Technical Podcast
1

Good Morning.

Here’s our CPI prep based on the reports at bottom.

Consensus:

  • Core CPI MoM is 0.2% (0.2% prior)

  • Core CPI YoY 4.7% (4.8% prior).

  • Headline MoM of 0.2% (prior 0.2%)

  • Headline YoY 3.3% (prior 3.0%).

How the Fed is looking at it:

  1. If consensus forecasts are accurate, CPI will post its first increase in a year.

  2. Core, which is essentially services inflation, while softening, is not accelerating enough for their taste yet

  3. Headline, which includes all the goods inflation is starting to uptick again

  4. We are now at the point in the disinflationary cycle where the Fed must ask itself: Is the goods inflation uptick an aberration or a change in trend?

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