Will Powell Shut the F*-king Door Today or Not?

FOMC Prep

The market is ready for a knockdown if that is what Powell wants to do. Does he want to do it?

The Bottom Line:

The Fed is almost certain to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%

The Fed will likely come in more hawkish than the market is currently handicapping. That should be bearish today.

But given yesterday’s activity (higher inflation, stronger stocks) unless Powell brings fire and brimstone to the podium the market may continue to ignore the signs. For how much longer noone knows. (Report excerpts from the big 3 —GS, JPM, MS— at bottom)