Housekeeping: Good Morning
Featured Analysis:
GoldFix PM: Why the Fed May Hike
Citadel argues markets are underestimating the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance and now expects Chair Warsh to raise interest rates in July rather than September. It says a surprise hike would reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, strengthen policy signaling, and help prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched despite mixed recent economic data.
In Other News:
Data on Deck: FOMC
MONDAY, JULY 27
8:30a Durable-goods orders (June) (prev -4.0% → est 2.1% → act 0.3%)
8:30a Durable-goods minus transportation (June) (prev 1.8% → act 0.6%)
TUESDAY, JULY 28
8:30a Advanced retail inventories (June) (prev 0.6%)
9a S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) (May) (prev 1.1% → est 1.3%)
10a Consumer confidence (July) (prev 91.2 → est 92.0)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
2p FOMC interest-rate decision
2:30p Fed Chair Warsh press conference
THURSDAY, JULY 30
8:30a Initial jobless claims (July 25) (prev 187,000 → est 200,000)
8:30a GDP (Q2) (prev 2.1% → est 1.8%)
8:30a Personal income (June) (prev 0.7% → est 0.3%)
8:30a Personal spending (June) (prev 0.3% → est 0.3%)
8:30a PCE index (June) (prev 0.4% → est -0.1%)
8:30a PCE (year-over-year) (prev 4.1% → est 3.7%)
8:30a Core PCE index (June) (prev 0.3% → est 0.2%)
8:30a Core PCE (year-over-year) (prev 3.4% → est 3.3%)
FRIDAY, JULY 31
8:30a Employment cost index (Q2) (prev 0.9% → est 0.8%)
9:45a Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (July) (prev 56.7 → est 55.7)
10a Consumer sentiment (final) (July) (prev 54.4 → est 54.0)
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