Zoltan: "QE will have to get restarted" | Market Rundown

Video Run Time: 27 minutes

VBL

May 23, 2023

∙ Paid

Today:

Market Rundown
Pozsar Speaks, Gold TA levels
Zen Moment: Dolphins

Any politician who consents to negotiate, consents.

1- Market Rundown

Good Morning. The dollar is up 28. Bonds are weaker most pronouncedly in the shorter dated maturities, perhaps reflecting another rate hike. Stocks are all down about 25bps. Gold is down $12. Silver is down 47c. Oil us up $1.00 (rhetoric is ramping up again, but it’s the evil speculators in the crosshairs now). Crypto is up 1.5 to 2%. Corn and Wheat are strong up 1.3%. Soy is sleepy.

Comment: One would think stocks should be down more, and they likely would be, except for the fact that debt ceiling talk “progress” gives them some support. Wesee hot money leaving gold. That hot money is bond money from Friday’s rally losing patience as debt ceiling talks “progress”

2- Pozsar Speaks

Saturday Zoltan Pozsar took the stage at the Bitcoin 2023 event. Some of his comments were subtle but conveyed significant evolution in Fed policy trends. Expect a no holds barred analysis on it for Premium subscribers by tomorrow.

New and significant commentary pertaining to Banks, YCC, RRP purpose, and Bitcoin are brought up. Some of his more recent interview themes are also elaborated on pertaining to: reshoring, Powell’s inflationary problem, and the 4 definitions of money etc. Loosely listed below are the main topics discussed (hyperlinks go to recent Pozsar posts on those topics)

Bank Failures/ incompetencies
Bank solutions playbook: BTFP,
Big Bank Risk
RRP as rainy day fund
Dissimilarities between Powell and Volcker circumstantially: Volcker was lucky
How Commodity supply/demand is different than the 1970s
Political landscape differences
The Return of QE in YCC form: He notes the needle has definitely moved here
Dedollarization: difficulties and inevitability
Bitcoin as private money