I want to agree with the logic of your premise, but riddle me this... How can DXY go down when it is weighted mostly in European currencies whose economies are at death's doorstep? I believe a lot of the strength in the past few months since the election was capital fleeing other parts of the world for the perceived safety (and higher yields) of a Trump driven economy. (Ditto on Bitcoin, but that's a separate theory.) So all the Western world's currencies debase together? By definition, wouldn't other currencies have to rise for DXY to go down? Or... are you saying DXY will decline at a faster rate than Euro's and BP's? I suppose the 3rd option is the DXY stays flat as all the currencies turn to shit at the same rate, but prices - and gold - go up?
That was very well written. At some point, can you speak ab out some concepts whereby gold gets revalued allowing CB to pay off hider monster debts? Luke GROMAN has mentioned this. Plus the EU has some rule whereby member countries must have X % of their assets in GOLD…for the same reason. Obviously no CB will vote against this. Is it hogwash? I accept this is probably the Last Chance Saloon. Thanks
I'm following Mr Piepenburg's practical if a bit self-congratulatory thesis most of the way through, until we get to:
"In other words, spending cuts are gonna be expensive.
They’re also gonna be inflationary. And more to the point, they’re gonna kill GDP, which means deficits will go up rather than down if DOGE gets into full gear with too strong a dollar.
Stated more simply: The risks and costs associated, ironically, with cutting spending, will only succeed if the USD is weaker rather than stronger when the pink slips start flying."
So, DC job cuts -> lower GDP -> strong USD -> Inflation?
But a strong dollar would lead to lower domestic goods prices and fewer exports. It would encourage imports and run contra to making US a net producer again. Unless they bludgeon everyone with massive tariffs to force a balance of payments parity.
So they have to sacrifice the strong dollar goal in order to boost manufacturing/exports and to maintain GDP growth. But wouldn't that lead to... inflation?
Hi VBL- I overall agree with you on alot of things, and I like your approach...but quoting tired goldbugs like von greyerz and Adam Schiff debases your brand.
I want to agree with the logic of your premise, but riddle me this... How can DXY go down when it is weighted mostly in European currencies whose economies are at death's doorstep? I believe a lot of the strength in the past few months since the election was capital fleeing other parts of the world for the perceived safety (and higher yields) of a Trump driven economy. (Ditto on Bitcoin, but that's a separate theory.) So all the Western world's currencies debase together? By definition, wouldn't other currencies have to rise for DXY to go down? Or... are you saying DXY will decline at a faster rate than Euro's and BP's? I suppose the 3rd option is the DXY stays flat as all the currencies turn to shit at the same rate, but prices - and gold - go up?
That was very well written. At some point, can you speak ab out some concepts whereby gold gets revalued allowing CB to pay off hider monster debts? Luke GROMAN has mentioned this. Plus the EU has some rule whereby member countries must have X % of their assets in GOLD…for the same reason. Obviously no CB will vote against this. Is it hogwash? I accept this is probably the Last Chance Saloon. Thanks
Happy new year to all.
I'm following Mr Piepenburg's practical if a bit self-congratulatory thesis most of the way through, until we get to:
"In other words, spending cuts are gonna be expensive.
They’re also gonna be inflationary. And more to the point, they’re gonna kill GDP, which means deficits will go up rather than down if DOGE gets into full gear with too strong a dollar.
Stated more simply: The risks and costs associated, ironically, with cutting spending, will only succeed if the USD is weaker rather than stronger when the pink slips start flying."
So, DC job cuts -> lower GDP -> strong USD -> Inflation?
But a strong dollar would lead to lower domestic goods prices and fewer exports. It would encourage imports and run contra to making US a net producer again. Unless they bludgeon everyone with massive tariffs to force a balance of payments parity.
So they have to sacrifice the strong dollar goal in order to boost manufacturing/exports and to maintain GDP growth. But wouldn't that lead to... inflation?
Hi VBL- I overall agree with you on alot of things, and I like your approach...but quoting tired goldbugs like von greyerz and Adam Schiff debases your brand.