Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an Event
Today:
Yesterday’s Activity:
US equities closed mostly flat on Monday ahead of the latest consumer price index report on Wednesday.
SPX -0.04% at 5,202, NDX -0.05% at 18,100, DJIA -0.03% at 38,892, RUT +0.50% at 2,073.
Market Commentary
Cit Raises Silver and Gold targets:
This coming less than 2 months after raising their price targets for 2024 We have the new report summary out just yesterday right here.
Rational Exuberance for Gold and Silver markets?
We lift our 0-3m price targets for gold and silver by 9% and 16%, respectively, to $2,400/oz and $28/oz.
We further lift 6-12m topside levels towards our bull-case scenarios, to $3,000/oz and $32/oz.
Gold/Silver ratio with Gold at $3,000 is high: CB buying, silver is more, banks arent showing their hand on silver
Blackrock’s Weekly Macro Analysis:
Working-age populations are declining in major economies. We favor countries that are better adapting and sectors set to benefit from spending shifts.
U.S. yields jumped last week but U.S. stocks remain near all-time highs. The strong March U.S. jobs data supports our view of only two or three cuts this year.
We eye this week’s U.S. CPI. We see goods inflation pulling down overall inflation while services remain sticky. We watch for how soon the ECB will cut rates.
Much more in premium
Price Action
Gold-
Silver-
Miners- Goldman says its ok to own them now
Oil-
BTC/ETH- bullish but captured like Gold
Stocks-
Bonds- YCC is coming
Dollar-
Market News:
"The full force of the moon’s shadow crossed the United States, Mexico and Canada on Monday, as the first total solar eclipse in seven years plunged the day into darkness and reminded all in its path of our planet’s place in the cosmos... The next opportunity to see a total solar eclipse in the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Canada isn’t until 2044. Source: NYT
"JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warned that U.S. interest rates could soar to 8% or more in coming years, reflecting the risk that record-high deficit spending and geopolitical stress will complicate the fight against inflation." Source: WSJ yup
"TSMC’s Arizona subsidiary is set to receive up to $6.6 billion in U.S. government funding under a preliminary agreement announced by the Biden administration on Monday...Source: CNBC- new economy
"The capability of new artificial intelligence models will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year, so long as the supply of electricity and hardware can satisfy the demands of the increasingly powerful technology, according to Elon Musk." Source: FT- not yours
"Blackstone has agreed to acquire an owner of upscale apartment buildings for about $10 billion, signaling that one of the world’s largest real-estate investors is ramping up investments again after a period of moving more cautiously. Blackstone is taking private Apartment Income REIT, known as AIR Communities, which owns 76 rental housing communities that are primarily in coastal markets, including Miami, Los Angeles, and Boston." Source: Bloomberg- decreasing supply in slowdown
GEOPOLITICS
Walls built, bridges destroyed, severance pay given as direct American involvement shrinks and its sphere of geopolitical influence recedes
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that a date has been set for a Rafah invasion in Gaza.
US State Department said the US has not been briefed on a date for Israel's Rafah invasion.
Hamas rejected the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal
White House said CIA Director Burns was in Cairo over the weekend for hostage negotiations
US Pentagon said Defense Secretary Austin expressed commitment to support an unconditional return of hostages
US intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel,
Australia's PM Albanese said Japan is a natural candidate to cooperate on stage two of the AUKUS security pact
Chinese military newspaper said Japan is showing 'obvious offensive characteristics' with its new Okinawa missile unit, according to SCMP.
more1
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY1 pm Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee radio interview None scheduledTUESDAY, APRIL 9 6:00 am NFIB optimism index March 89.7 89.4
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10 8:30 am Consumer price index March 0.3% pm Minutes of Fed's March FOMC meeting
THURSDAY, APRIL 11 8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 6 215,000 221,000 8:30 am Producer price index March
FRIDAY, APRIL 12 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (prelim) April 78.6% 79.4% 2:30 pm2
Premium:
Citi’s price target and explanation
Blackrock’s Weekly Macro Report
