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Discussion: Gold's New ATH On Goldman Target Raise to $3,100
Premium: Breaking down the Goldman report
Discussion:
Gold's New ATH On Goldman Target Raise to $3,100
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,100 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $2,890.
Structural Demand from Central Banks
Goldman estimates that a "structural rise in central bank demand could add 9% to gold prices by the end of 2025."
Buy Recommendation Reaffirmed
Goldman reiterated its "buy gold" trading stance. The bank emphasized gold’s value as a hedge against risks such as trade tensions, potential Fed policy missteps, and recession threats
Full analysis at bottom…
News/Analysis:
Markets Recap:
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+0.24%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.45%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) gained 0.63% and 0.72% respectively.
Market News: Don’t Blame Canada
“President Trump on Tuesday said he was considering tariffs of 25% or more on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Tariffs will be “in the neighborhood of 25%” on those industries and may increase over time, he told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. He added they would “go very substantially higher over the course of the year.” Trump also said companies in the U.S. may be given a phase-in period on items they import, giving them time to move production to the U.S. He said he would allow “a little bit of a chance” to re-shore production.” Source: WSJ Shaun Newman and Nick Morianos of Silver-Gold Bull. . tariffs on items, not nations
“Elon Musk’s xAI on Tuesday unveiled its latest artificial intelligence model, Grok 3, claiming it can outperform offerings from OpenAI and China’s DeepSeek based on early testing, which included standardized tests on math, science and coding. The team also said it was launching a new product called “Deep Search,” which would act as a “next generation search engine”.” Source: CNBC
“Howard Lutnick, the billionaire CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, was confirmed by the Senate Tuesday to be President Donald Trump’s Commerce secretary... Lutnick told senators during his confirmation hearing that tariffs will be used to bolster US national security and restore American manufacturing and supply chains. He said they would be an effective negotiating tactic to force other countries to “respect” the US.” Source: Bloomberg
“Intel’s rivals Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals that would break the American chip-making icon in two.WSJ
“Baidu reported a smaller-than-expected revenue drop, alleviating concerns its internet search and artificial intelligence businesses are buckling under fierce competition Bloomberg
“OpenAI is considering granting special voting rights to its non-profit board in order to preserve the power of its directors, as the $157bn start-up fends off an unsolicited takeover bid from Elon Musk. Source: FT
“An investor group is planning one of the world’s largest data centers for artificial intelligence in South Korea, Source: WSJ
Geopolitics/ Politics
MIDDLE EAST
Israel Minister of Strategic Affairs Dermer will work with US Special Envoy Witkoff on phase two talks which are focused on demands to end the war
UKRAINE
US President Trump said talks with Russia were very good and he is more confident, while he added that he does not think they would have to remove all troops from Europe and it is fine if Europeans want peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. Trump criticised Ukraine who he said wants a seat at the table but noted that Ukraine has had a seat and this could have been settled easily, as well as falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war and suggested Ukraine should hold an election. Furthermore, Trump said it was the Ukrainian leadership that allowed the war to continue so far and he is disappointed after Ukraine denounced its exclusion from US-Russia talks, while he also stated that he will probably meet with Russian President Putin before the end of the month.
Intelligence reportedly shows Russian President Putin is not interested 'in a real peace deal' and is going through the motions but still thinks he can eventually control all of Ukraine, according to the sources cited by NBC News.
ASIA
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Bolivia’s Foreign Minister at the UN and said China is willing to work with Bolivia to elevate their strategic partnership, while he added that Latin America belongs to its people and is not any country’s "backyard", as well as stated that China will always be a trustworthy friend and partner of Latin America.
via Newssquawk
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, FEB. 17 President's Day holiday
TUESDAY, FEB. 18 Home builder confidence index
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 19 Housing starts, Minutes of Fed's January FOMC
THURSDAY, FEB. 20 Speakers and Phila Fed
FRIDAY, FEB. 21 PMIs1
Final Market Check
