CFTC: Swap Dealers Barely Participate Again

Housekeeping: includes CTA analysis at bottom

---

1. Normal variation/ Trend week

2. 1st day was the tell

3. 50 higher and the banks sell 4k???? 50 lower thy buy 17-20k.. lol..

   1. We have to go up with behavior like that until the events

4. last 3 days spec funds and CTAs chasing momentum.. with macro-d selling to them

5. banks nibbled on option trades.. and got burnt again

6. Sell some gold buy some bitcoin now.. forget oil it seems

7. position update

8. CTAs definitely are adding again..This is the hottest of hot money

9. Discussion: Why Gold Vol is cheap right now (see last chart)

There is no reason to be short still.

Cohorts match up in normal fashion with bank short side (dealer books) participating significantly less than normal

Banks do act as principal in options selling calls to funds.

Silver swap dealers cover shorts strongly suggesting they initiated the rally here… not fund buying

Option volatility is depressed relative to price… this is not necessarily opportunity yet.. discussed

CTAs are long and getting longer in Gold.