Dear Zoltan: We (Still) Need a Vol Moment 30 Months Later

Is today the Vol moment? We wonder.

Contents: (418 words)

1. Intro

2. We Still Need a Vol Moment

3. GOLD during this cut cycle

4. BONDS during this cut cycle

5. USD during this cut cycle

6. What happens to USD/Gold next?

We (Still) Need a Vol Moment, Zoltan

Remember when Pozsar said markets need a "Vol moment"?

"We need a Volcker moment…

…a Volcker moment, where Vol stands for “vol” – as in volatility."

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Post Feb 2022: Cure Inflation "By Forcing Long Term Rates Higher"- Zoltan Pozsar

He was right. But here we are two years later and Bonds offer no term-premia and a cutting cycle is apparently ( written at 10:53 on Fed day) starting. Meanwhile, stocks continue to take an escalator higher. ²

Is today the Vol moment? We wonder.

We Still Need a Vol Moment

He was referring to a time when Volcker used to keep them guessing.. Admittedly Volcker did that too much and it conveyed a lack of confidence on his part and resulted in too much volatility into markets back then.