Election 2024: Biden Gains Ground on Trump
It’s Gonna Be “The Economy Stupid" if The Fed Eases…
Intro:
We believe as the election nears the economy will matter even more in voting decisions. Divided electorate aside, Biden needs to get his base out, and to do that he must motivate them via good economic numbers.
It’s Gonna Be “The Economy Stupid “if The Fed Eases…
Looking at this chart one way, Biden is dead in the water. But according to institutional Bond manager “Hayek & Keynes” if Biden’s approval *does* uptick it will be because of more good economic good news:
“Consumer sentiment vs Biden’s approval rating…. If the economy holds up, Biden’s odds are going to improve dramatically in the coming weeks…”
Lets face it, Biden can’t fix the geopolitical situation unilaterally even if he wanted to. In that regard, Biden’s better served simply hoping the Middle East doesn’t get worse.
Thus: If you feel the Fed is politically pressured and they do ease, Biden may have a chance against Trump in November1
On that note, UBS released its updated tracker for polls, betting odds, and catalysts on the 2024 US presidential election to gauge the potential market reaction to shifts in odds.
And it shows Biden gaining ground on Trump