Exclusive: Bullion Bank "Pulls Forward" Price Targets

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Exclusive: Bullion Bank "Pulls Forward" Price Targets

Morning Meeting

VBL

Mar 06, 2024

∙ Paid

Housekeeping: Good Morning. Today’s podcast and premium analysis are must listen

“We pull forward our longstanding 6-12m baseline gold price target of $2,150/oz and upgrade the 0-3m and 6-12m base case targets” -Citibank

Today:

Super Tuesday, ATHs in Gold and Bitcoin, and Powell speaks
Premium: (starts 14:20) Bullion Bank raises Price target for Gold, Election coverage

Yesterday’s Activity:

US equities declined on Tuesday, weighed down by tech shares.

Market News:

Super Tuesday Analysis

Trump, as expected, dominated Super Tuesday. Of the states that have reported, Nikki Haley managed to win one (Vermont) and Trump is thus approaching the number of delegates needed to secure the party's nomination in July. With little to challenge Trump and Biden, within their respective parties, a lot of Super Tuesday's discussion in media is devoted to how the results could affect the presidential election this fall.
- more at bottom

Powell Today

Fed's Powell testifies today and tomorrow in the House of Representatives and the Senate, respectively. It will be interesting to see if there are any clearer signals about when the first interest rate cut may come (before or after the summer) and about QT-policy. Most likely, Powell will reiterate that there is no rush to cut rates.
h/t Nordea

NOTABLE HEADLINES

"The price of gold has surged to a record high, driven by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts, investors hunting for haven assets and months of prodigious buying by central banks and Chinese investors. The yellow metal struck $2,141 per troy ounce on Tuesday, beating the previous record of $2,135 set in December." Source: FT
"[BTC] reached a new all-time high for the first time in more than two years, topping topped $69,210
"China will target economic growth of about 5 per cent this year, a rate that analysts have described as “ambitious”, as the world’s second-largest economy battles challenges ranging from a property slowdown to weak investor confidence.
"Target’s annual revenue declined for the first time in seven years, as the retailer struggled to entice shoppers to splurge on discretionary items like home goods and electronics.
"Sales of Apple’s iPhone plunged in China in the first six weeks of 2024,
"Bond investors have punished banks with heavy exposure to commercial real estate
"President Joe Biden on Tuesday will launch a new task force to take on “unfair and illegal” corporate pricing, which Biden sees as a major reason why consumers are not yet feeling the impact of cooling inflation rates and a strong economy.
Top MSM News Links

GEOPOLITICS

Hamas senior official said any exchange of prisoners cannot take place except after a ceasefire.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service director Naryshkin said French President Macron's statement about NATO soldiers in Ukraine shows the irresponsibility of European leaders and are pushing the world to a nuclear war, according to TASS.
US State Department said the US stands with the Philippines following China's provocative actions against lawful Philippine maritime operations in the South China Sea, while the US condemns China for repeatedly obstructing Philippine vessels' high seas freedom of navigation

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek

Data on Deck:

~~MONDAY, MARCH 4~~ ~~12:00 pm Philadelphia Fed President Tom Harker~~
~~TUESDAY, MARCH 5~~ ~~10:00 am ISM services Feb.~~
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6 10:00 am Fed Chair testifies to Congress.
THURSDAY, MARCH 7 Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress
FRIDAY, MARCH 8 U.S. NFP unemployment rate 1

Markets Commentary:

Comment:

Global Commodities - Pulling forward the Bullish Gold thesis; record prices ahead?

We pull forward our longstanding 6-12m baseline gold price target of $2,150/oz and upgrade the 0-3m and 6-12m base case targets to $2,200/oz and $2,300/oz, respectively.