“[T]he Chinese have now taken delivery of a bunch of physical New York gold in response to that arb.”
Housekeeping: The following is informed conjecture into the Gold markets based on history, experience, and sources with access to certain pieces of information.
None of this is guaranteed. But we’ve done these type analyses before and have been proven correct over time more than once. Prior examples in footnote.1
This is a behavioral framework based on market structure analysis and experience for the reader to make their own inferences.. It is how things have been done ( by us and others) in the past overlaid on current events.
Nobody has a monopoly on truth, and this information cannot be precise, but we believe it is largely logistically accurate. Read this footnote also.2
Enjoy.
Subtitles:
The Shanghai Arb and Gold's Exit Strategy
Connecting More Dots
Who Does This?
Who Would Trade The Arb?
China’s Gold Market Structure
Because Gold is Money Dummy
SGE and International Arbitrage
The Shanghai Arb and Gold's Exit Strategy
We had an extended conversation with Tom Luongo last week which he posted yesterday in podcast form.
Regarding Gold we shared with him the following exclusively:
Over the last month or so, China has been taking delivery of Gold out of New York presumably related to the Shanghai Premium. We’ve believed this for some time, knowing that JPM and others have strong banking relationships and would be able to effect such a transaction. We also had no evidence of it except the drawdown in China followed by a drawdown in US Comex.
But now I can say here, that two unconnected sources confirm the delivery of Gold in China from the USA.
As stated, we have two unrelated sources on this. One is a respected ( by us, not just the public) banker/analyst/journalist. The other is a fund manager in Asia.