Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today:
Discussion: Fed Rate Decision Day
The Election Factor
Powell’s Focus Given the Trump Wild card
Market and Analyst Rate Cute Predictions
What About the data leading into today?
FOMC Statement-Watch
Fed Infighting Risk
Press Conference Focus
Fed’s Forward Guidance and Flexibility
Labor Market vs. Inflation
Continues at Bottom…
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
US equities rallied to record highs on Wednesday after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+2.53%) vs. Russell 2000 (+5.84%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) fell 1.23% and 1.45% respectively.
Market News:
"Stock indexes ripped higher Wednesday after Donald Trump was elected president and Republicans’ Senate victory put a red sweep in play... WSJ
"Silicon Valley is bracing for a vastly different relationship with the US government as Donald Trump returns to the White House Bloomberg
"The Federal Reserve likely will stick to the business at hand when it wraps up its meeting Thursday with another interest rate cut. CNBC
"“A star is born: Elon,” said Donald Trump in a lengthy shout out to his biggest donor while claiming victory in the US presidential race on Wednesday morning. FT
"The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage surged 9 basis points Wednesday to 7.13%, CNBC
"Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan and the market niche he took mainstream in 2024 can take a victory lap. Along with Donald Trump, the Republican Party, and the [virtual] currency industry, prediction markets are a clear winner of the U.S. election. Source: CoinDesk
Politics/Geopolitics: War of Attrition
Israeli official said the US transition period may provide Israel with an opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear programme, according to Bloomberg.
Israeli Army Chief of Staff announced the country's forces should prepare for the expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to Iran International.
Hezbollah said it targeted a military base south of Israel's Tel Aviv "for the first time" with a swarm of drones, according to a statement.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he congratulated Trump by phone and they agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance cooperation, according to Reuters.
Data on Deck: FOMC Decision
MONDAY, NOV. 4 10:00 am Factory orders
TUESDAY, NOV. 5 10:00 am ISM services
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 6 9:45 am S&P final U.S. services PMI
THURSDAY, NOV. 7 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision + conference
FRIDAY, NOV. 8 10:00 am Consumer sentiment
***FINAL MARKET CHECK***
Premium:
