Fed raises 75bps- talks hawk, but not really

Off next two days : so here is a quick Fomc comment:

Raise 75 basis points as expected. But it was expected. No one thought higher. Yet Fed also still talking tough on inflation.

Stocks like it a lot. Gold likes it too! Silver may have the CTA knuckleheads in the run now. And crypto likes it. Bonds love it in an inverted (more and worse) recession indications.

The market behavior right now is like QE started.

Powell keeps saying “data dependent” which is a sign that they are worrying about recession and if one prints, they may back off hikes or QT.

Our guess is we need a recession print followed by 2 data points of shrinking inflation. But stocks don’t think that. They are strong.

Key for us in a meta way:

  1. They are phasing out month to month guidance which means bigger moves on big data days. (We mentioned this today)

  2. Also implies they are not as sure what they will do going forward.

  3. GDP is out this week. Is that comes in negative or just very weak, stocks could really really rally. This will signal recession, the fed will not talk as much, and stocks may ramp higher until the fed does talk.

Real time headline newsfeed here:

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Some quotes:

POWELL: PATH TO SOFT LANDING HAS NARROWED, MAY NARROW FURTHER
*POWELL: TAKE EST. FOR RATES NEXT YEAR `WITH A GRAIN OF SALT'
POWELL: PACE OF RATE HIKES TO DEPEND ON INCOMING DATA
POWELL: AT SOME POINT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO SLOW DOWN RATE HIKES
POWELL: WE STILL THINK BEST MEASURE ON INFLATION IS PCE

*Powell: Slower Economy Needed, But Won't Comment on Recession Outlook
(And then he comments on recession) 

POWELL: JOB GROWTH, WAGE MEASURES ARE STRONG, NOT CONSISTENT WITH A RECESSION

POWELL: I DON'T THINK U.S. IS CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION