Founders: For those asking about "Buy Season" Exits- Plus Angry Trade Ideas
Hartnett
Housekeeping: Our own trading is not relevant to the GoldFix message. But in this case it is relevant to the actual concept discussed.
Contents:
Exiting Buy Season trades
Hartnett start scaling out of stocks
Exiting Buy Season trades
Given asset reallocation is such a big focus this time of year, and has grown in reader popularity since we started publicly discussing it back in October 2020, here is our buy season exit plan (for winners) with some context.
All these trades also have stop losses which we are not discussing except to say: We puke if VaR losses touch down 5% on these.
The whole seasonal trade idea is null and void by January one. Thus any position held beyond that is not a “buy season” concept. Markets can continue for months1. Gold frequently rallies until February. Buy that is not a seasonal rally. That is a market with “follow through legs” beyond the seasonality
What was done Friday:
Closed 2/3 of long bond position, 1/3 of GDX position based on time and profits.
Saw nothing that makes us less bullish. The passage of time makes us automatically close this type of “flow” trade by default. Much more on that here
The bond position however was held for a month and was getting too profitable to “let it ride”… Especially given the run up in stocks afterwards and the increased length in gold.