Founders: It's All About Oil Again Folks
Bonus: How The Media Will Push Back Against Resurgent Inflation
Good Morning.
Goldman is on its Oil horse again. We are always alert to when Goldman makes its first bullish call in a cycle, not its last one. This is especially interesting ( and high profile) in that it is *after* Currie’s departure. Jury is out on their call1, but oil is up for now. There is something out of character about this call.
Not sure if that is less bullish or more bullish...we will look closer and do a quick pod comment on it for Founders later today.
If oil continues to rise during its customary sell season between September and November, then next year may be a rocket ship higher based on historical seasonality.
How The MSM Will Push Back on Higher Oil
Oil prices will now start to uptick in “headline” inflation if it stays there for several months.
The media will next force the insincere comparison between oil prices versus embedded disinflation. It’s a bullshit comparison
Their point will again be: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices and that inflation is slowing down now.
But its not the inflation that kills you.. its the higher prices.
Similarly.. it’s not the acceleration that kills you when your car hits a tree, it’s the speed.
Data today:
Trade deficit data will be watched somewhat. No expected market movers from these releases however.