Gold: UBS (Bear) versus Goldman (Bull)?
Hartnett for The Holidays
Housekeeping: Good afternoon. Holiday chaos has settled in here. Lots of new things for 2025 getting sorted out. Coming soon: Return of the GoldFix Weekend report, Special interviews (mentioned before), Hats (sample pic attached) and More….
Intro:
*Hartnett’s report was light this week. We’ve attached that at bottom.*
First here is a timely UBS update on Gold extremely relevant to our interests in that it contradicts a competitor Goldman Sachs. Goldman hinted that inelastic Central bank demand added upside risk to their $3,000 price target. But below, UBS moderates their own enthusiasm due to Fed policy risk.
Here is an excerpt from that Goldman report Still Bullish Gold in a Stronger Dollar For Longer World for context
We push back on the argument that gold cannot rally to $3,000/toz by end-2025. We disagree with the view [from competitors like UBS] that dollar strength will halt structurally higher central bank purchases because central banks tend to buy gold internationally from their dollar reserves. 1
This UBS commentary dated December 20th below makes precisely the argument on which Goldman is now pushing back.