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Hartnett Flow Show: Inflationary Inflection is Coming

Trading the ISM Inflection Point
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Summary:

From Consuming to Making

In today’s Flow Show Report, Michael Hartnett lays out why the US has done so well (American Exceptionalism) relative to global peers and then describes how the economy will change in the coming months from being consumer driven to being Producer driven.

What to Buy?

He then gives the trade recommendations to capitalize on such an economic hand-off using his ISM implied valuations and expectations. Those include Commodities, EM stocks, and Industrial Metals like Copper

Biden vs. Trump

Finally, he touches on very broadly what he expects the priorities of Biden and Trump should either of them win the election in November.

Timestamps:

(Transcription attached)

  • 0:00- Intro: Covid lows, Japan, Mag 7

  • 4:30- Chart contextual walkthrough

Title Topics:

  • 7:55- 3 Things Drive US Exceptionalism:

  • 11:55- Trades and rationale

  • 16:00-What next?

Biden vs Trump In a Nutshell

  • 17:10-They differ on Unemployment/ Inflation prioritization

Key Terms

What is ISM?

ISM= Institute of Supply Management: outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices.

What is PMI?

PMI = Purchasing Mgr Index: aims in providing information regarding the current and future conditions of a business to the decision-makers, analysts and investors of the company. It is boots on the ground info at the production level

Enjoy

Transcript attached

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