Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“Comex is dying”
Topic:
Gold and Oil in Wake of Iran Escalation
Market Analysis:
Special: Final Word on Citi's Bearish Call...
Citibank says it's bearish on gold. We suspect it’s talking to producers, not investors. Their past calls helped oil clients hedge before prices dropped. Now, signs point to gold miners selling forward into high prices. The public call may mask private flows. Watch producer activity. Pressure on gold could build.
**Oil: If Iran Blocks the Strait, $120-$150 Range Possible. (Founders)
Goldman warns oil could surge to $120–$150 if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Current prices already include a $10 risk premium. While markets see this as temporary, some analysts say resolution won’t come easily. Meanwhile, gold is holding firm—even as the dollar strengthens—signaling deeper stress beneath the surface.
Full analysis in Premium later today
Inevitable Dollar Devaluation: A Structured Analysis
Economist Savvas Savouri says a second Trump term would likely weaken the U.S. dollar—consistent with past presidencies. From Nixon in 1971 to Reagan and Bush Jr., tariff pressure led to dollar declines. Trump’s trade stance fits this historical pattern. This time, global shifts may give the yuan more influence.
Soc Gen Says "Dedollarization Benefits Gold and Small Currencies"
SocGen and the ECB confirm de-dollarization is no longer theory—it’s underway. As trust in fiat fades, gold has overtaken the euro in central bank reserves. The dollar’s decline hasn’t boosted other currencies, only gold and some BRICS FX. This marks a structural monetary reset, echoing a return to Bretton Woods
Related Posts:
Coming Soon:
Data on Deck: Powell and PCE
MONDAY, JUNE 23 10:00 am Existing home sales
TUESDAY, JUNE 24 10:00 am Fed Chair Powell testifies to House
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2510:00 am New home sales
THURSDAY, JUNE 26 10:00 am Pending home sales
FRIDAY, JUNE 27 8:30 am PCE index
Full calendar1
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver semi-annual monetary policy report testimony be-fore the House Financial Services Committee during a two-day session beginning Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday.
Summary and Final Market Check…
MONDAY, JUNE 239:45 amS&P flash U.S. services PMIJune53.053.79:45 amS&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIJune51.552.010:00 amExisting home salesMay3.95 million4.0 million
TUESDAY, JUNE 249:00 amS&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)April--4.1%9:15 amCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks10:00 amConsumer confidenceJune99.198.010:00 amFed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Service Committee
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2510:00 amNew home salesMay689,000743,000
THURSDAY, JUNE 268:30 amAdvanced U.S. trade balance in goodsMay---$87.6B8:30 amAdvanced retail inventoriesMay---0.1%8:30 amAdvanced wholesale inventoriesMay--0.0%8:30 amInitial jobless claimsJune 21248,000245,0008:30 amDurable-goods ordersMay6.5%-6.3%8:30 amCore durable-goods ordersMay---1.3%8:30 amGDP (second revision)Q1-0.2%9:00 amCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks10:00 amPending home salesMay0.0%-6.3%
FRIDAY, JUNE 2710:00 amConsumer sentiment (final)June59.560.58:30 amPersonal incomeMay0.3%0.8%8:30 amPersonal spendingMay0.2%0.2%8:30 amPCE indexMay0.1%0.1%8:30 amPCE (year-over-year)2.3%2.1%8:30 amCore PCE indexMay0.1%0.1%8:30 amCore PCE (year-over-year)2.6%2.5%
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