Inevitable Dollar Devaluation: A Structured Analysis

Housekeeping: **No Founders Meeting Today**

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The Inevitable Effect of Tariffs is USD Devaluation

Note: The audio is 2nd and 3rd order analysis and separate from the written work below

Contents (1300 words)

1. Introduction: The Pavlovian Reflex of U.S. Trade Policy

2. Historical Replays: Nixon, Reagan, Bush—and Trump

3. Nixon, 1971: Bretton Woods Abandoned

   1. Reagan, 1985: Plaza Accord

   2. Bush Jr., 2005: Yuan Revaluation

   3. Trump’s First Term: Disrupted Tariff Sequence

4. The Mechanism: Why the Dollar Must Weaken

5. Not If, But When: The Return of Devaluation Diplomacy

6. The British Pound: Secondary but Telling Symptom

7. Conclusion

Introduction: The Pavlovian Reflex of U.S. Trade Policy

Dr. Savvas Savouri’s April 2025 QuantMetriks report argues with historical clarity that a second Trump presidency would predictably result in a weaker U.S. dollar. This would not be a deviation from American precedent, but a continuation of a well-worn script. Tariff threats provoke currency realignments, leading to dollar devaluations that placate trade tensions. Trump’s actions, while cast in disruptive rhetoric, are fundamentally traditional in their mechanics.