Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“Comex is dying”
Topic:
Goldman Reiterates $4,00 Target, Counters Citi's Bear Call
Market Analysis:
Goldman Stands Firm on $4,000 Call Post Citi's Bear Call
This is a direct empirical reinforcement of Goldman’s earlier thesis and implicitly, a challenge to Citi’s more muted Gold outlook covered here yesterday.
In a note from Precious metals analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, (the same who most recently stated Gold and Oil are buys), Goldman underscores the structural underpinnings of gold demand, driven not by retail investors or speculative flows, but by central bank accumulation suprises. They also note Despite gold trading near all-time highs due to Middle East tensions, speculative positioning remains curiously subdued:
“Speculative inflows into gold have been muted and positioning remains unusually low given the macro uncertainty.” [ or perhaps Comex is dying, and buying is moving eastward]
Goldman also holds the line on its high-conviction forecast:
“We maintain our forecast…$3,700/toz by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, and we reiterate our long gold trade recommendation.” [ on continued CB demand
Full analysis in the Premium post: Goldman Stands Firm on $4,000 Call Post Citi's Bear Call
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Later Today and This Weekend:
Data on Deck: Fed Week
MONDAY, JUNE 16 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing
TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 am U.S. retail sales
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18 8:30 am Housing starts, 2:00 pm FOMC rate decision
THURSDAY, JUNE 19 None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday
FRIDAY, JUNE 20 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed survey
Full calendar1
Summary and Final Market Check…
MONDAY, JUNE 168:30 amEmpire State manufacturing surveyJune-6.0-9.2
TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 amU.S. retail salesMay-0.6%0.1%8:30 amRetail sales minus autosMay0.2%0.1%8:30 amImport price indexMay-0.2%0.1%8:30 amImport price index minus fuelMay--0.4%9:15 amIndustrial productionMay-0.1%0.0%9:15 amCapacity utilizationMay77.7%77.7%10:00 amBusiness inventoriesApril0.0%0.1%10:00 amHome builder confidence indexJune3634
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 188:30 amHousing startsMay1.37 million1.36 million8:30 amBuilding permitsMay1.44 million1.41 million8:30 amInitial jobless claimsJune 14250,000248,0002:00 pmFOMC interest-rate decision2:30 pmFed Chair Powell press conference
THURSDAY, JUNE 19None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday
FRIDAY, JUNE 208:30 amPhiladelphia Fed manufacturing surveyJune-1.0%-4.010:00 amU.S. leading economic indicatorsMay-0.1%-1.0%
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