Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“Comex is Dying”
Topics:
China "Secret" Gold buying Surprises Yet Again
Platinum: Goldman Asks if Rally is Structural or Temporary
JPMorgan Ups Worst-Case Odds, Deutsche Bank Models 3 (Bad) Scenarios
Market Analysis:
Goldman: China "Secret" Gold buying Surprises Yet Again
Goldman Sachs’ latest nowcast confirms continued strong central bank and institutional (low key, non reported) gold buying in April, with 68 tonnes purchased across non-US jurisdictions via the London OTC market.
Goldman: China "Secret" Gold buying Surprises Yet Again
Housekeeping: We have as many as 9 posts lined up this weekend. We will try to bunch up most posts in one email GoldFix PM style. Busy times for sure.
China’s secretive Gold buying was first discussed at GoldFix in context of the first time Goldman disclosed their new methodolgy in pricing Gold in “Goldman Shares a Gold Secret. Their current figure remains far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes at 88 tonnes and above above Goldman’s current aggressive estimates.
Full Analysis in the Premium post: China "Secret" Gold buying Surprises Yet Again
Platinum: Goldman Asks if Rally is Structural or Temporary
Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis on platinum attributes the metal’s recent rally to transient market forces rather than lasting fundamentals. Platinum's surge to $1,280/toz, which began during May’s Platinum Week, is framed not as a breakout supported by demand or supply imbalances, but as an ETF and speculative-driven event unlikely to be sustained.
Platinum: Goldman Asks if Rally is Structural or Temporary
Platinum’s Price Rally: Unsustainable Momentum or Structural Shift?
The report does not dismiss platinum’s long-term investment case entirely but urges skepticism toward price rallies unsupported by physical fundamentals. Investors should interpret current prices as noise within a still fundamentally range-bound market. We also give our observations which put needed context on the situation.
JPMorgan Ups Worst-Case Odds, Deutsche Bank Models 3 (Bad) Scenarios
The coordinated views of JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank (in contrast with Goldman Sachs) suggest a rising tail risk for oil markets. While neither forecasts immediate disruption, both stress that forward curves are misaligned with the magnitude of potential geopolitical shocks. Should further strikes hit Iranian core infrastructure, or should Iran respond at sea, price discovery will likely occur rapidly and disorderly.
DB notes the market remains far from pricing in a Strait of Hormuz event. The bank emphasizes the importance of three unknowns involving tradeoffs in what could be existential choices Iran must soon make
Full analysis in JPMorgan Ups Worst-Case Odds, Deutsche Bank Models 3 (Bad) Scenarios
Related Posts:
Coming Soon:
Data on Deck: Fed Week
MONDAY, JUNE 16 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing
TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 am U.S. retail sales
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18 8:30 am Housing starts, 2:00 pm FOMC rate decision
THURSDAY, JUNE 19 None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday
FRIDAY, JUNE 20 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed survey
Full calendar1
Summary and Final Market Check…
June 30th for Silver
BRICS Summit Starting Soon
