Hartnett Part 2: The 10 Biggest Themes For Next 5 Years
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Housekeeping: Good Morning.
A quick word on why this report is important:
Hartnett: Thematic Investing and The World in 2030
From macro to micro, from QE to AI The 2020s kicked off with interest rates at 5,000-year lows. The second half of the 2020s begins with equity, crypto & gold at record highs, bond yields at 15-year highs, “US exceptionalism” globally accepted, and the onset of one of the most transformative technological revolutions in human history.
So begins Michael Hartnett’s Thematic 2025 report setting the reader up for eye opening investing ideas that, despite being an equity report, have a prominent place for Gold as part of the calculus. Themes 7 and 8 of his top 10 below insist that Gold be a part of portfolios to benefit financially from those themes.
But this is not a gold report. This is a checkpoint on the migratory path from secular changes filtering down to our wallets.
Hartnett discusses trends as moving from secular world-altering status (Deglobalization, Mercantilism, Multipolarity, mistrust1) in context of his Macro-economic specialty (Government Policies to compensate and adjust for the new realities and their effect on asset classes) and finally down through the micro-investing (industry and stock-picking) perspective.
To that effect:
We think micro themes will dominate macro in the coming 5 years: tech transforming our economy against a backdrop of populism, AI resource bottlenecks, generational shifts in power and wealth, and a return of government fiscal discipline.
Essentially, what began with Anti-Goldilocks2 almost 4 years ago at GoldFix and eloquently (cryptically also) explained by Zoltan Pozsar back then, is now obvious to even the most mediocre politician or advisor globally.
Hartnett is currently “skating to where he believes the puck will be’ in the next phase of this financial hockey game.
We have excerpted from the full must-read report ( also attached at bottom) which elaborates in much greater detail what his Flow Show touched on this week.
Enjoy
1. "Technology is eating the world"
Agentic AI + Reasoning + Rich Simulations + Embodied AI = Industry 6.0 which is minimizing human intervention.