Housekeeping: Good Morning
Featured Analysis:
JPM on Oil: Escalate. Negotiate. Violate. Repeat.
J.P. Morgan says the Iran conflict is increasingly threatening refined fuel supplies, not just crude oil flows. Restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, weak Middle Eastern refinery output, and collapsing Russian diesel exports have tightened global gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel markets. Although the bank still expects negotiations to prevent a prolonged war, inventories remain dangerously low, leaving little protection against another disruption. J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $86 in the third quarter of 2026.
In Other News:
Data on Deck: FOMC
MONDAY, JULY 27
8:30a Durable-goods orders (June) (prev -4.5% → est 2.1%)
8:30a Durable-goods minus transportation (June) (prev 1.3%)
TUESDAY, JULY 28
8:30a Advanced retail inventories (June) (prev 0.6%)
9a S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) (May) (prev 1.1% → est 1.3%)
10a Consumer confidence (July) (prev 91.2 → est 92.5)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
2p FOMC interest-rate decision
2:30p Fed Chair Warsh press conference
THURSDAY, JULY 30
8:30a Initial jobless claims (July 25) (prev 187,000 → est 203,000)
8:30a GDP (Q2) (prev 2.1% → est 2.1%)
8:30a Personal income (June) (prev 0.7% → est 0.4%)
8:30a Personal spending (June) (prev 0.3% → est 0.3%)
8:30a PCE index (June) (prev 0.4% → est -0.1%)
8:30a PCE (year-over-year) (prev 4.1% → est 3.7%)
8:30a Core PCE index (June) (prev 0.3% → est 0.2%)
8:30a Core PCE (year-over-year) (prev 3.4% → est 3.3%)
FRIDAY, JULY 31
8:30a Employment cost index (Q2) (prev 0.9% → est 0.8%)
9:45a Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (July) (prev 56.7 → est 55.0)
10a Consumer sentiment (final) (July) (prev 54.4 → est 54.0)
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