Market Rundown | BBG on Gold, Goldman Says No Recession
Some Goldfix changes
Housekeeping: Good morning all. As some of you may know, VBL will be teaching MBA Finance at University starting this month. That necessitates more rigor/structure for Goldfix dispatches.The almost Daily Goldfix will hit your inbox before 8am weekdays with a simple format.
Market Rundown: one paragraph recapping where markets are1
Excerpts: focused on Gold and macro drivers included with usual Premium attachments at bottom.
Surprise: a Moor Analytics technical excerpt, an oil news recap, or something else we get daily but can only show once in while in Premium. And of course the Zen moment.
We now you may get a lot of info from different sources. As always thank you for having us in your inbox. If 7:30 is too early to read emails, feel free to circle back after your coffee for whatever you want to read.
That’s it. Thanks again- Goldfix
Market Rundown:
Good Morning. The dollar is down 20 bps. Bonds are slightly weaker. Stocks are slightly weaker with Nasdaq the softest at down 50bps. Gold is up $2. Silver is down a penny. CL is up a buck. Nat Gas is up 15 cents. Grains are very strong up 2% plus across the board. and Crypto is soft but stable
Goldfix impression of bank marketing behavior if stocks stay buoyant…
Bloomberg on Gold
Gold may be in a similar condition in 1H as 4Q18, when the metal advanced from base building of around $1,200 an ounce. A similar foundation appears to be forming at about $1,700.
The key catalyst four years ago for gold to rally was when Fed rate-hike expectations reversed. We see parallels in August, with the central bank entering a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. Our graphic shows the rolling fed funds future in one year (FF13) potentially bottoming in a similar pattern as in 2018.
More at bottom Goldman Says No Recession, Inflation Cooling
If any confirmation was needed, the July employment report shows that the US economy is not in recession. Although real GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters and other growth measures such as our current activity indicator (CAI) have clearly been slowing, most of the monthly indicators used by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research are still rising.
Most importantly, nonfarm payrolls surged 528k in July, a further pickup from the robust pace of the prior six months. These numbers are preliminary, but even allowing for the possibility of downward revisions it is clear that employment is still expanding at a healthy rate, at least for now
More at bottom 