GoldFix

Share this post

Weekly: Markets More Worried About Fed hikes Than Ukraine

vblgoldfix.substack.com

Weekly: Markets More Worried About Fed hikes Than Ukraine

War in Europe is bullish for US stocks. But Things Are Far From O.K.

VBL
Feb 26, 2022
Share this post

Weekly: Markets More Worried About Fed hikes Than Ukraine

vblgoldfix.substack.com
Housekeeping: Anyone who signs up right now gets a free premium week as a trial run. It just makes sense.  If you get something out of it, pls support it. Thank you. Prices will be increasing in one week. Lock it in annually if you like it.

Founder’s Class : 3 p.m. SUNDAY. CoT and Market prep chat. Zoom Link here: Password: (usual one). See you then!


SECTIONS

  1. Market Summary: weekly recap

  2. Technicals: active trading levels

  3. Podcasts: GoldFix and Bitcoin

  4. Calendar: next week

  5. Charts: related markets

    Premium divider

  6. Analysis

  7. Research


1. Market Summary

The world changed this week. No-one told markets however. They had a panic moment or two, but it was mostly while US investors slept. US equities ripped back into the green on the week in the last two days. Section 6 discusses stock behavior and Fed policy in Ukraine crisis context.

But by the end of this week , stocks were again higher, Fed rate-hike trajectory had shifted hawkishly, oil was unchanged, gold was flat, safe-haven Treasuries were sold, cryptos were lower, and Government approval ratings were higher.

  • Nasdaq was up over 8% from the week’s lows

  • The Dow ended barely red.

  • Friday was the Dow's best day of the year

  • Small Caps outperformed.

Sectors

  • Consumer Discretionary1 stocks were the week's biggest laggards

  • Healthcare #1 and Utilities #2 outperformed

  • Defensives #3 dominated Cyclicals #4

Commodities

see chart section for graphics

  • Dollar was safe-haven bid as Putin invaded and didn't give it all back

  • Ruble was routed on the week, but even that staged a comeback in the last 36 hours

  • Cryptos all ended lower on the week but well off the Putin plunge lows

  • Oil, crude, and precious metals were practically unchanged on the week despite volatility

  • Gold ended the week back below $1900.

  • Backwardation in WTI's term structure is at a record high

Bonds

Bonds are telling us that things are unchanged. However odds of a full 7 rate hikes by December are higher while odds of a 50 basis point hike in March dropped. Consider future rate hikes being slowly pushed further into the future.

Unchanged Bonds combined with lower March rate hike chances implies less inflation containment now due to the Ukraine conflict. This is consistent with stocks rebounding on the week by the way.

Real Rates Confirm It.

We are not alone in this opinion: Nomura notes that real rates are now more negative on the week. So while nominal yields are not as high as they were, the spread between those yields and real yields (w/ inflation backed out) are now bigger.

Real Yields moving sharply more negative…
Via Zerohedge

Inflation fears are growing even if Bond yields are not. It means: what the Fed doesn’t do now, it will have more to do later. Bonds are not dishonest here in our opinion.

GoldFix Friday WatchList:

Complete Watchlist Here


2. Technical Analysis

Report Excerpts Courtesy MoorAnalytics.com

GoldFix Note: Do not attempt to use price levels without symbol explanations or context. Moor sends 2 reports daily on each commodity they cover. The attached are non-actionable summaries.

Gold

TECHNICALLY BASED MARKET ANALYSIS AND ACTIONABLE TRADING SUGGESTIONS

TECHNICALLY BASED MARKET ANALYSIS AND ACTIONABLE TRADING SUGGESTIONS Moor Analytics produces technically based market analysis and actionable trading suggestions. These are sent to clients twice daily, pre-open and post close, and range from intra-day to multi-week trading suggestions. www.mooranalytics.com

Bitcoin

Energy

Go to MoorAnalytics.com for 2 weeks Gold, Oil, and Bitcoin reports free


3. GoldFix and Bitcoin Podcasts

Right before the spike and subsequent reversal
Twitter avatar for @VlanciPictures
VBL @VlanciPictures
Gold: Russian Buying, Selling, Watching
1:13 PM ∙ Feb 22, 2022
8Likes1Retweet
Bitcoin and the rationale for Russia to Start Buying it.
Twitter avatar for @VlanciPictures
VBL @VlanciPictures
btc Friday morning https://t.co/3sEMxbHWa3
2:51 PM ∙ Feb 26, 2022
  • GoldFix Broadcasts HERE

  • Bitcoin Podcasts HERE


4. Calendar

Some upcoming key data releases and market events.

MONDAY, FEB. 28

  • 8:30 am Trade in goods, advance report Jan. -- -$101.0 billion

  • 9:45 am Chicago PMI Feb. 63.4 65.2

  • 10:30 am Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

TUESDAY, MARCH 1

  • 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (final) Feb. 57.6 57.5

  • 10 am ISM manufacturing index Feb. 58.0% 57.6%

  • 10 am Construction spending Jan. 0.0% 0.2%

  • 2 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 2

  • 8:15 am ADP employment report Feb. 400,000 -301,000

  • 9 am Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks

  • 9:30 am St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks

  • 10 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies at House committee

  • 2 pm Beige Book

THURSDAY, MARCH 3

  • 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Feb. 26 227.0000 232,000

  • 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Feb. 19 -- 1.48 million

  • 8:30 am Productivity revision (SAAR) Q4 6.7% 6.6%

  • 8:30 am Unit labor costs revision (SAAR) Q4 0.3% 0.3%

  • 9:45 am Markit services PMI (final) Feb. 56.7 56.7

  • 10 am ISM services index Feb. 60.7% 59.9%

  • 10 am Factory orders Jan. 0.6% -0.4%

  • 10 am Core capital equipment orders (revision) Jan. -- 0.9%

  • 10 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies at Senate committee

  • 6 pm New York Fed President John Williams speaks

FRIDAY, MARCH 4

  • 8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Feb. 415,000 467,000

  • 8:30 am Unemployment rate Feb. 3.9% 4.0%

  • 8:30 am Average hourly earnings Feb. 0.5% 0.7%

  • 8:30 am Labor force participation rate, prime working age Feb. -- 82.0%

  • 8:45 am Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks

Main Source: MarketWatch


5. Charts

Rectangles reflect behavior during Ukraine headline dominance

Russian Ruble

Dollar Index

Gold

Silver

Crude Oil

Charts by GoldFix using TradingView.com

Zen Moments:

Twitter avatar for @heaIwithraccoon
raccoons that ll heal your sadness @heaIwithraccoon
4:35 PM ∙ Feb 22, 2022
864Likes144Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ladbible
LADbible @ladbible
The sound 😂🔊 🎥: lj_kate (TT)
2:00 PM ∙ Feb 26, 2022
669Likes76Retweets

Disclaimer:

Nobody is telling you to do anything here. Anybody who tells you to do something without first intimately knowing your personal situation is irresponsible at best and manipulative at worst. Anyone who acts on other people’s opinions without first doing an inventory of their own situation shouldn’t be surprised if they lose money.

6. Premium: Research and Analysis

EXCERPT: Why Did Stocks Rally Thursday and Friday? Our feeling is stocks dropped hard on the very real risks in Europe. They didn’t rally at all on hopes of solution yet

7. Premium: Reports

Gold: We expect portfolio diversifiers to offer material shelter – think Gold and US-30yr bonds. We also see catch-up potential in the CHF after the outperformance of Gold

Oil: Russia has always been a reliable supplier of oil, and even at the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union did not shut off oil exports. Things might be different now

EU Equities: Following the developments in Russia & Ukraine we detail below our sector analysts’ views on company exposures to the regions, implications of higher commodity prices, and other potential ramifications from the heightened geopolitical tensions


***Premium Beneath the Fold***


Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to GoldFix to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2023 VBL
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing