Housekeeping: Good Morning. —
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today:
Discussion: Buy Gold, Sell Stocks 2025
Hartnett starts his main section this week with: There is no trading alternative to long US dollar, long US stocks, short US Treasuries post-election;
But post inauguration…Buy International Stocks, Buy Treasuries (if yields rise to 5%) and Buy Gold
Buy gold…secular inflection point in globalization and coming inflection in demographics, plus massive energy needs of AI…gold (and crypto) remain best secular inflation hedges.
“Secular inflection point in globalization”…. (The “M” Word)
“Coming inflection in demographics”…
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
US equities fell sharply on Friday as investors considered the impact of another Trump presidency and pace of rate cuts by the Fed. Large caps and small caps retreated: S&P 500 (-1.32%) vs. Russell 2000 (-1.42%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) was flat and MSCI EAFE (EFA) dropped 0.36%.
Market News:
"Investors have stampeded into funds tracking U.S. stocks and picked up trades that would profit if the rally that recently sent the S&P 500 above 6000 for the first time reaches new heights.WSJ
"October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer.Yahoo Finance
"Two of Elon Musk’s private companies are set to secure multibillion-dollar jumps in valuation through new deals, as investors race to back the sprawling business interests of the world’s richest man. FT
"Ant Group’s profit nearly grew 193% in the June quarter, reversing a year-long decline as the fintech company regained its footing from a government crackdown...Source: Bloomberg
"The trading accounts of US banks topped $1tn in the third quarter — their highest level in more than 16 years and close to an all-time high — as the nation’s largest financial firms seek to profit from rebuilding their market-making businesses. Source: FT
"TikTok parent ByteDance is valuing itself at about $300 billion, one of its highest valuations ever, even as the Chinese tech giant’s popular TikTok app faces the prospect of a looming ban in the U.S." Source: WSJ
"The Exploration Company (TEC) announced on Monday that it has raised $160 million to fuel development of its capsule that is designed to take astronauts and cargo to space stations. CNBC
Politics/Geopolitics: Russia Escalation
Russia's Kremlin on reported decision by Biden Administration to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia says these reports did not have official sources; if such a decision has been made by the US, this will usher in a new round of tensions. It would mean a new situation with the involvement of the US in the Ukraine conflict. If Western weapons are fired deep into Russia, this will not be Ukraine doing the targeting, but those countries which gave permission.
US President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit the Russian depth was communicated to Kyiv about 3 days ago, while the motive behind the decision is to deter North Korea from sending more troops to Russia, according to a source cited by Axios.
Russian upper house’s international affairs committee deputy head Dzhabarov said the decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside of Russia with US missiles is an unprecedented step that could lead to World War Three and will receive a swift response, according to TASS. Furthermore, it was also reported that a senior Russian senator said the US decision to allow Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range weapons represents escalation and could result in the Ukrainian statehood being in complete ruins by the morning.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched around 120 missiles and 90 drones in a massive combined air strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure early on Sunday morning, while Ukraine’s largest private power company said the Russian air strike damaged thermal power stations, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces launched a massive strike on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure facilities that support the defence industry and military enterprises, according to RIA.
Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region and western Ukraine’s Rivne region, while Russia’s missile attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s north-western Volyn region.
Poland activated aircraft to ensure airspace security after Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine.
French President Macron said the massive Russian attack on Ukraine shows Russian President Putin does not want peace and they must continue helping Ukraine defend itself.
Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said Japanese troops are to have regular deployment in Australia and focus on cooperation between Australian and US Marines.
North Korean leader Kim urged the military to improve capabilities for fighting an actual war, while he added that threats by the US and allies brought tensions and calls for war preparations, according to KCNA.
North Korea said Russia’s delegation led by the national resources minister arrived in North Korea, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that North Korea may end up sending 100k troops to Russian President Putin to support Russia’s war in Ukraine although it was also stated that the move is not imminent and troops could rotate in batches, according to Bloomberg.
Data on Deck: Housing and Talking
MONDAY, NOV. 18 Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
TUESDAY, NOV. 19 8:30 am Housing
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20 None scheduled
THURSDAY, NOV. 21 Existing home sales
FRIDAY, NOV. 22 U.S. services PMI/ Consumer sentiment
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