yes. very timely and very well written. and as you rightly imply, this puts further urgent upward pressure on the gold price as the structural short position is so carelessly embedded. time to exit. and yet, as you also mentioned this week, there may be analytical specs on autopilot who are gearing up to short gold prior to july 1🤔
I remember Zoltan’s article. He saw this that’s taking place currently. Commodities hum if Gold does reset higher what does oil do? Lots of questions the future will provide the answers. Happy Easter
ITS not gold priced in dollars thats the problem , its what happens to the present MAD HATTERS party when it smacks hard into the100 thousand ton BRICS gold WALL ??
Incredible piece, Vince....thanks for laying that out so clearly. Given the likelihood that indeed the West is losing control to China, and considering the tension between the US and China on trade (although I know Tom Luongo says it's all about Europe), why wouldn't China put up some serious cash and buy the vast majority of silver in above ground stockpiles? Are they worried the US would attack them? It certainly would shake up the system. Just curious. Thank you sir....
@billmatt2: this is not hard: miner revenues move up in lockstep with gold price.
miner costs move up in lockstep with inflation.
if you believe as i do that during this “transition” period we are experiencing a revaluation of gold, as it evolves FROM a fragile commodity that’s been getting sand kicked in its face for years by the big banks TO the world’s strongest “flight to safety” currency, then there are two important observations here:
a) miners will see an explosive ramp in profit margins and hence valuation.
b) this will continue for longer than we expect.
how long? that’s harder. i think we’’ll meed to measure this in “price” rather than “time”.
eg i’ve been personally predicting this (& sometimes mocked) since well before covid. so it’s been (embarrassingly, to me) taking a long time. now things seem to be accelerating to the point where time is no longer the variable. price is gonna be the variable. that can move a lot faster… there’s quite a lot of gold. but nowhere near enough of it to satisfy demand if quite a lot of people realise all at once that they need it NOW.
so we may not be there this second. but at some point in the very near future (imho) there will be a shocking upswing in demand and price. spoiler alert to all the analysts pointing out how “overbought” gold is) that violent upswing didn’t really start yet—gains so far are mostly/merely the result of a small-ish flight to safety resulting from unexpected US political “instability” that bessent, powell et al are struggling to mitigate.
just imho but the “not in plain view” catalyst for this violent upswing could be the big long term structural short position held by too many trading desks who specialized in picking up pennies in front of steamrollers. they all need to cover asap (as vince is pointing out). or, if they don't get fired right away they may reverse & go long. either way, note this:
1. there’s long term slow & patient buyers (cb’s) who are already getting impatient (especially china)!
2. there’s people who have recently started buying who’ve been trying to be patient and act cool but are losing patience as the dips they’ve been confidently then hopefully predicting have been shallow to non existent.
3) there’s the largest single group of all: “50/50” people who are getting VERY nervous about the 50% they have in bonds AND about the 50% they have in stocks. all at once. oops.
4) there’s going to be a rush for the exits of gold shorts being carried out on stretchers who will add fuel to the flames
5) there’s perhaps going to be a reduction in gold trading leverage (i’ll defer to vince on this one, but the comex is obv an example as the most leveraged platform; the entry of individual investors is another). IF it happens it could be a part of what triggers a change in the pattern of gold price movements that emboldens the bulls by making rushing in feel less risky in allowing for a quick explosive move up followed by a relatively more stable market
6) gold is a tricky commodity. in stable markets (ie most of the last few millenia) surges in demand have been relatively light enough to be managed by price increases. but the truth is that there isn’t enough gold in the world to handle a widespread surge in demand. so that possibility hasn't been tested yet😱
my base case fwiw is for an explosive and brutal price hike in gold. followed by two way trading at a previously ‘unimaginable new normal’ price. followed by some occasional smaller price increases that, in total, will still be substantial….
could this start on monday night/tuesday? yeah. sure. maybe.
will it? nah. cuz i just said it could.
will this start in the next 8-12 months? even tho i’ve been wrong so long re timing up til now, i’m having problems defining the specific scenario which will prevent that upswing taking off in an 8-12 month window ….vince? anyone? can you help me build that “all clear siren” scenario?
Thank you so much for your thoughts and excellent (I hope) analysis. A great and appreciated Easter Egg gift. I have physical and miners, AEM and AGI. I like the safer jurisdictions. COMEX trading is way beyond my knowledge base and capabilities even for a retired Corp Fin exec. I know what I don't know and don't want to get my head handed to me at this point in my life. Thanks again and Happy Easter.
Is the buying by China and BRICS continuing until they trigger the Reset or NWO? Could goal be an event? rather than say "we want to have xxx amount of tons in gold by such a date"???
CME owns Comex, right? if this is dying, wouldn't CME face some of the blowback? Don't misunderstand, I'm an idiot, so I may be asking an ignorant question, but that's why I'm here.
yes. very timely and very well written. and as you rightly imply, this puts further urgent upward pressure on the gold price as the structural short position is so carelessly embedded. time to exit. and yet, as you also mentioned this week, there may be analytical specs on autopilot who are gearing up to short gold prior to july 1🤔
Wow... this is huge Sir...
Kudos to You... this is the better explanation I ever saw...
Felt like the "isolated scientist scene" in catastrophe movies when he alone is educating all the gov guys about what's going to happen...
And, frankly, the mighty Zoltan should use Your explanation skills...
An Easter egg for Gold bugs
Absolutely outstanding analysis, at every level. Learned more from this pitch perfect exposition than I have in a long time.
A masterly statement of what may, but probably is, on the near horizon.
Kudos, Vince
Great discussion and puzzle alignment. Encapsulates many thoughts into one big picture. The graphics were icing on the cake.
I award you 10 / 10 chocolate rabbits.
Seriously, thank you Vince !
I remember Zoltan’s article. He saw this that’s taking place currently. Commodities hum if Gold does reset higher what does oil do? Lots of questions the future will provide the answers. Happy Easter
Excellent post. Thank you Vince. When are you and Tom going to do another podcast? Looking forward to that.
ITS not gold priced in dollars thats the problem , its what happens to the present MAD HATTERS party when it smacks hard into the100 thousand ton BRICS gold WALL ??
Outstanding, well done.
Superb commentary Vince, thank you. Happy Easter!
Vince,
World class analysis on the Gold Regime Change.
Thank you for sharing your invaluable insights.
well looks like the market isn’t in the mood to wait til tuesday.
us stocks still look queasy,
dxy continues to roll downhill and gold is now up $47.70 since the last price i saw thursday evening
Incredible piece, Vince....thanks for laying that out so clearly. Given the likelihood that indeed the West is losing control to China, and considering the tension between the US and China on trade (although I know Tom Luongo says it's all about Europe), why wouldn't China put up some serious cash and buy the vast majority of silver in above ground stockpiles? Are they worried the US would attack them? It certainly would shake up the system. Just curious. Thank you sir....
Perhaps China already is scooping up a lot of silver? Jamie Carrasco seems to think so.
I won’t get my hopes up until I see that $35+ spot :)
What do you see for the miners? Explosive move up?
@billmatt2: this is not hard: miner revenues move up in lockstep with gold price.
miner costs move up in lockstep with inflation.
if you believe as i do that during this “transition” period we are experiencing a revaluation of gold, as it evolves FROM a fragile commodity that’s been getting sand kicked in its face for years by the big banks TO the world’s strongest “flight to safety” currency, then there are two important observations here:
a) miners will see an explosive ramp in profit margins and hence valuation.
b) this will continue for longer than we expect.
how long? that’s harder. i think we’’ll meed to measure this in “price” rather than “time”.
eg i’ve been personally predicting this (& sometimes mocked) since well before covid. so it’s been (embarrassingly, to me) taking a long time. now things seem to be accelerating to the point where time is no longer the variable. price is gonna be the variable. that can move a lot faster… there’s quite a lot of gold. but nowhere near enough of it to satisfy demand if quite a lot of people realise all at once that they need it NOW.
so we may not be there this second. but at some point in the very near future (imho) there will be a shocking upswing in demand and price. spoiler alert to all the analysts pointing out how “overbought” gold is) that violent upswing didn’t really start yet—gains so far are mostly/merely the result of a small-ish flight to safety resulting from unexpected US political “instability” that bessent, powell et al are struggling to mitigate.
just imho but the “not in plain view” catalyst for this violent upswing could be the big long term structural short position held by too many trading desks who specialized in picking up pennies in front of steamrollers. they all need to cover asap (as vince is pointing out). or, if they don't get fired right away they may reverse & go long. either way, note this:
1. there’s long term slow & patient buyers (cb’s) who are already getting impatient (especially china)!
2. there’s people who have recently started buying who’ve been trying to be patient and act cool but are losing patience as the dips they’ve been confidently then hopefully predicting have been shallow to non existent.
3) there’s the largest single group of all: “50/50” people who are getting VERY nervous about the 50% they have in bonds AND about the 50% they have in stocks. all at once. oops.
4) there’s going to be a rush for the exits of gold shorts being carried out on stretchers who will add fuel to the flames
5) there’s perhaps going to be a reduction in gold trading leverage (i’ll defer to vince on this one, but the comex is obv an example as the most leveraged platform; the entry of individual investors is another). IF it happens it could be a part of what triggers a change in the pattern of gold price movements that emboldens the bulls by making rushing in feel less risky in allowing for a quick explosive move up followed by a relatively more stable market
6) gold is a tricky commodity. in stable markets (ie most of the last few millenia) surges in demand have been relatively light enough to be managed by price increases. but the truth is that there isn’t enough gold in the world to handle a widespread surge in demand. so that possibility hasn't been tested yet😱
my base case fwiw is for an explosive and brutal price hike in gold. followed by two way trading at a previously ‘unimaginable new normal’ price. followed by some occasional smaller price increases that, in total, will still be substantial….
could this start on monday night/tuesday? yeah. sure. maybe.
will it? nah. cuz i just said it could.
will this start in the next 8-12 months? even tho i’ve been wrong so long re timing up til now, i’m having problems defining the specific scenario which will prevent that upswing taking off in an 8-12 month window ….vince? anyone? can you help me build that “all clear siren” scenario?
billmatt2
12:38 PM (2 minutes ago)
Thank you so much for your thoughts and excellent (I hope) analysis. A great and appreciated Easter Egg gift. I have physical and miners, AEM and AGI. I like the safer jurisdictions. COMEX trading is way beyond my knowledge base and capabilities even for a retired Corp Fin exec. I know what I don't know and don't want to get my head handed to me at this point in my life. Thanks again and Happy Easter.
yes lets hope so
i’m still searching unsuccessfully for a credible alt scenario… anyone?!
fwiw, asia trading right now:
us $ & us stocks continue to roll downhill
gold has covered the rest of thursday’s losses+a smidge
(new ath basis $s)
i have mostly miners:
kgc & paas v large positions
ngd: half position
but also gdx & gdxj (where i started—but at this point they’re only ~half positions)
and 2 juniors, one of which i’m getting very bullish about & will add to this week
Since there are no market making makhers in here, what are the two juniors you love?
Is the buying by China and BRICS continuing until they trigger the Reset or NWO? Could goal be an event? rather than say "we want to have xxx amount of tons in gold by such a date"???
CME owns Comex, right? if this is dying, wouldn't CME face some of the blowback? Don't misunderstand, I'm an idiot, so I may be asking an ignorant question, but that's why I'm here.