Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today:
Discussion: Crash Helmet
Analysis: CPI today
Discussion: Still Creepy… But Not Worried Yet
The last time the Fed cut 50 bps was September 18th 2007
September 18th, 2007: "We're having champagne and cookies," Skrainka said. "This is not a magical elixir that solves our subprime problems overnight, but it is a big step in the right direction to keep the economy growing. The Fed is sending a strong message that it won't get behind the curve," he added.
Initial reaction was good. But then…
Zooming Out on Stocks versus Gold after the last 50bps cut…
Then the GFC Started
Here we are in 2024…. humming the same tune…
Bottom Line: As long as oil stays down, we should be ok. But… if war spreads eastward in the ME, look out
News/Analysis: CPI Preview
Headline CPI to rise +0.1% M/M in September, down from +0.2%
Annually a drop to 2.3% YoY, from 2.5% YoY.
Core rate is seen cooling to +0.2% M/M, also down from +0.3% previously.
Continues at Bottom…
Equity Recap:
US equities advanced on Wednesday ahead of September's consumer price index report. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs. Large caps bested small caps: S&P 500 (+0.71%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.26%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) lost 0.54% and MSCI EAFE (EFA) edged up 0.02%.
Market News:
"U.S. antitrust enforcers haven’t broken up a company in 40 years. Several high-stakes cases, including two involving Google, could determine whether that dormant period comes to an end. WSJ
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell received some pushback on a half-point interest-rate cut in September, as some officials preferred a smaller, quarter-point cut. Bloomberg
"China’s Golden Week holiday affirmed a trend in more cautious spending, while consumers put greater emphasis on experiences. CNBC
Politics/Geopolitics: World At War
US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call which took place in a positive atmosphere and focused on the Israeli response to Iran
White House said Biden’s call with Israel's Netanyahu was direct and productive, while it added that discussions on the Iran attack continued and the call lasted 30 minutes. It was separately reported that Washington does not yet know the timing of the strike against Iran, nor the nature of the objectives, while Israel's US envoy said the Biden-Netanyahu call was positive and Israel appreciates the support of the US.
Taiwan President Lai said China has no right to represent Taiwan and he will uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment,
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, OCT. 7 Consumer credit, speakers
TUESDAY, OCT. 8 NFIB optimism index, speakers
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 9 Minutes of Fed's September FOMC ,speakers
THURSDAY, OCT. 10 Consumer price index Sept.0.2%
FRIDAY, OCT. 11 Producer price index
FINAL MARKET CHECK
