Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“Strategy is just tactics on a longer timeline”
Topic:
Hating the 50 DMA
Pre-Holiday Loose Ends: News items to be aware of for the rest of the week
Market Analysis:
GoldFix PM: 50 Day Moving Average Means Nothing Now
In the past 72 hours, gold slipped below its 50-day moving average. That happened Friday. By Sunday night, the usual pattern followed: the bears pressed lower, hoping to trigger stop-losses. They succeeded. But when prices hit their lows, someone stepped in—almost certainly China—and bought with conviction. The knife was caught.
This intervention forced a turn. Within two trading days, the market reclaimed the 50-day line. That was significant. Shorts covered, losses were booked, and that chapter closed.
Now the 50-day moving average holds no real meaning. A line without slope is a line without signal. Until the average slopes—up or down—it will offer no edge. If prices churn sideways in this zone, the moving average is a distraction. It may be cited, but it is no longer useful. This is the kind of false guidance that leads inexperienced traders to buy breakouts above it, then sell panics below it—repeating losses in both directions. The market punishes those who mistake movement for meaning.
So wait. Watch the slope. Trade only when something changes.
Now, completely ignoring my own advice… know that we are Long silver and doubled our position yesterday (Friday) in the hopes that macro discretionary would come in in the new quarter. Our time frame for this to start happening is Monday at the latest.
Full analysis in Premium
Related Posts:
Coming Soon:
Final market check
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, JUNE 30 9:45 am Chicago Business Barometer
TUESDAY, JULY 1 9:45 am S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI
WEDNESDAY, JULY 2 8:15 am ADP employment
THURSDAY, JULY 3 8:30 am U.S. unemployment rate
FRIDAY, JULY 4 None scheduled, July 4 holiday
Full calendar1
Charts and Final Market Check
Beware July 9th
WASHINGTON, D.C. – President Trump reaffirmed Tuesday that the U.S. will not extend its tariff pause beyond July 9. Only a deal with the UK and a temporary truce with China have been secured to date. Markets continue to price in optimism that agreements will be reached or talks extended before the deadline. If not, reciprocal tariffs of 20–50% could be reinstated next week.
The Bill That Broke up the Musk-Trump Bromance
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Republican-backed "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) budget proposal passed the Senate on Tuesday by a single vote with Vice President J.D. Vance breaking a 50–50 tie. Three Republican senators opposed the bill over concerns about rising deficits and Medicaid cuts. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen as investors demand higher compensation for fiscal risk. The bill now returns to the House of Representatives for another vote. Trump aims to sign the budget by Friday.
Powell Pushes Back: Tariffs Drove Rate Cut Freeze
SINTRA, PORTUGAL – Speaking at the ECB’s annual forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve went on hold in response to the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariff policy [Edit- Bullshit see footnote for more2] . “All inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said. The central bank has faced mounting pressure from Trump to cut rates, but Powell implied that absent trade policy disruptions, monetary easing would likely have already occurred.
U.S. Jobs Data Next
GLOBAL – A light macroeconomic calendar lies ahead today, with focus turning to Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Investors are largely sidelined until clearer labor signals emerge. The meltup continues in stocks as the USD melts down
MONDAY, JUNE 309:45 amChicago Business Barometer (PMI)June43.040.5
TUESDAY, JULY 19:45 amS&P final U.S. manufacturing PMIJune--52.010:00 amConstruction spendingMay-0.1%-0.4%10:00 amJob openingsMay7.3 million7.4 million10:00 amISM manufacturingJune48.648.5%TBAAuto salesJune--15.6 million
WEDNESDAY, JULY 28:15 amADP employmentJune120,00037,000
THURSDAY, JULY 38:30 amInitial jobless claimsJune 28240,000236,0008:30 amU.S. employment reportJune115,000139,0008:30 amU.S. unemployment rateJune4.3%4.2%8:30 amU.S. hourly wagesJune0.3%0.4%8:30 amHourly wages year over year3.9%3.9%8:30 amU.S. trade deficitMay-$61.6B9:45 amS&P final U.S. services PMIJune--53.710:00 amFactory ordersMay8.2%-3.7%10:00 amISM servicesJune50.5%49.9%
FRIDAY, JULY 4None scheduled, July 4 holiday
Powell didn’t pause cuts because of Trump’s tariffs; he paused because he blew his ammunition too early. In September 2024, he slashed rates to juice markets ahead of the election, hoping to prop up Biden’s sagging chances. That move, driven by political pressure and blind to the fiscal recklessness unleashed during Covid, boxed him in.
Now, with yield curve bear steepening a bigger risk from his actions in combination with Trump’s own brand of brinksmanship Powell is shifting too much blame reframing CYA behavior as risk management He points to Trump’s trade threats as the source of “uncertainty,” yet he himself said the uncertainty is diminishing even as Tariffs are not filtering through meaningfully into inflationary pressures. Things are less uncertain that they were 4 months ago by his own admission
The truth behind his reticence is Long-end yields are unstable and potentially rising, flashing warnings that rate cuts paired with fiscal indiscipline will shred what’s left of America’s global investment credibility. Powell is managing risk he is partly to blame for
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