Housekeeping: There were several new Founders and many excellent questions. As a result, this is one of the better market structure behavioral explanations on how markets actually worrk. A Template is given to identify how every market is made and how mercantilist behavior creates all markets.
Good morning. Sunday, the Founders group was rejoined by Ben from “Kontrarian Korner”1 (contact info downpage and footnoted) who updated us all on Sable Offshore, which had a nice pop recently and some of the Founders had exposure after his previous visit. He updated the group on further progress and his view of the pricing outlook.
This was in addition to our regular discusson topics which centered on the CFTC data, market structure ( and its abuse) and some intersting subtopics.
Using this list of topics in combination with transcript searchs can get you to where you wnat to listen. Enjoy
Topics Discussed
Session Introduction and Setup
Overview of tools and charts used
Initial thoughts and early conclusions
CFTC Futures Market Analysis
Interpreting open interest in gold futures
Funds vs. banks: directional vs. magnitude roles
Behavioral anomalies in current gold market
Concept of the "fishhook" pattern
Historical Market Behavior Context
Normal relationships between open interest and price
Divergences observed in recent trends
Repatriation and Liberation Day references
Market Participant Structure
Producers, end users, and speculators
Role of market makers (banks) and intermediaries
Commodity market analogies (corn, oil, coffee)
Manipulation and Structural Bias
Flow dominance and abuse potential by banks
Options market structure and speculator preferences
Options Market Breakdown
Activity of swap dealers, managed money, and end users
Gamma positioning and implied behavior shifts
Goldman Sachs’ potential role and recommendations
Open Interest Behavior: Daily Review
Day-by-day breakdown of price vs. open interest
Identification of short covering and speculative buying
Commercial COT Positioning
Long/short positioning trends over time
Correlation with gold price inflections
Potential reversion to historical behavior
Chart and Visual Confirmation
Annotation and interpretation of long-term positioning charts
Fishhook analogues on higher timeframes
Guest Segment: Sable Offshore Drilling
Introduction of analyst Ben Kelleran
Background on Sable and asset details
Production forecasts and CapEx breakdown
Regulatory and legal context (CCC and fire marshal)
Valuation metrics vs. peer comparables (WTI, Talos)
Institutional ownership and fund interest
Refinancing and relationship with JP Morgan and Exxon
Expectations for share price drivers
Wrap-Up
Ben’s final remarks and contact information
Summary of next expected milestones
Ben’s Substack
