What would happen if the election result were delayed? We have said several times elections are supposed to bring certainty. This year that is not likely to happen. (e.g. Gore/Bush, Trump/HRC, Trump/Biden)
“THERE IS NO OUTCOME TO THE 2024 ELECTION THAT WILL LEAD TO CALM SOCIAL ORDER, CALM POLITICS, CALM IN THE STREETS AND THEREFORE “NORMAL” MARKETS IN THE WAKE”
If Harris wins: Electoral fraud cases and similar challenges from Trump are likely
If Trump wins: Possible constitutional crisis or a repeat of Jan 6 more likely
Evidence to that effect 6 months ago:
In a leading indicator of rising risks of post-election market volatility, both the Biden and Trump campaigns have been beefing up their legal teams on the expectation of a prolonged bout of post-election legal mayhem.
Imagine the mobilization now. The closer the race is, the less likely Gold will be lower election night.
US equities rallied amid a slew of corporate earnings reports. Large caps bested small caps: S&P 500 (+0.16%) vs. Russell 2000 (-0.27%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) dropped 0.31% and 0.36% respectively.
Market News:
Alphabet’s profit jumped 34 per cent in the third quarter, as the US search giant reported strong growth in cloud business amid robust demand for computing and data services used to train and run generative artificial intelligence models." Source: FT
"Elon Musk’s xAI is in talks with investors for a funding round that would value it around $40 billion... WSJ
"Advanced Micro Devices, forecast fourth-quarter revenue just shy of estimates and raised its artificial intelligence chip sales forecast to $5 billion for 2025 - not enough to impress investors.: Reuters
"Chipotle Mexican Grill on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results as earnings beat expectations but revenue fell short. CNBC
"Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations. CNBC
US confirmed a small number of North Korean troops are already in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea's defence intelligence agency said it is possible some North Korean troops have been deployed on the battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia war and stated that North Korean troops are not ready for drone warfare in the Ukraine-Russia war.
Israeli Chief of Staff said if Iran makes a mistake and launches missiles towards Israel, they will hit strongly the capabilities and places they excluded during the previous strike
Israeli minister said the war with Hezbollah will be over by year-end.
Israeli officials cited by Axios noted that Hezbollah is ready to distance itself from Hamas in Gaza and the IDF is close to ending the ground operation in villages in Lebanon that border with Israel, while the army reportedly recommended to PM Netanyahu that the time is right to end the fighting in Lebanon. Furthermore, Haaretz reported the security establishment is unanimous regarding exploiting military achievements in southern Lebanon and Gaza to reach agreements to end the war
US President Biden's advisers are to visit Israel to try to seal a deal to end the war in Lebanon, according to Axios.
Ukraine and Russia are in talks about halting strikes on energy plants, according to FT.
Data on Deck: PCE and NFP/Unemployment
MONDAY, OCT. 28 None scheduled
TUESDAY, OCT. 29 S&P Case-Shiller home price index
