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Iran vs. Israel: War Room Analysis

Morning Meeting

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an Event


  • Friday activity, Iran attacks

  • Premium: Goldman on the Russian Metals Ban

Yesterday’s Activity:

US equities sold off sharply on Friday amid rising geopolitical concerns.

Premium Commentary

Goldman Says Stay long copper and aluminium

It is important to recognise that these exchange focused rule adjustments are taking place in an environment where fundamentals for copper and aluminium are inflecting into a sustained tightening direction, after two benign years for fundamentals in 2022 and 2023.

Indeed, the strong performance of the industrial metals complex over the year so far is a trend we expect to gather momentum ahead. This view particularly resonates with copper and aluminium,

Much more at bottom…

Price Action:

  • Gold-

  • Silver-

  • Miners-

  • Oil-

  • BTC/ETH-

  • Stocks-

  • Bonds- YCC is coming

  • Dollar- steady as she goes.

Market News:

Geopolitical risk rose over the weekend with Iran’s attack on Israel. We will be watching oil prices, currency/Treasury markets, and how this event shifts investor perceptions of future Fed policy. Gold as well obviously. Crude prices are The US’s chief concern.


Pax Americana is ending

  1. What happened?

    Iran attacked Israel directly

  2. Why did Iran do that?

    Because they’re Israel and Iran

  3. How successful was it?

    materially, little to no, data wise, excellent

    Israel support sites missile failures

    Iran support cites penetration to airbase as goal

  4. What was Israel’s response

    No response within 48 hours

    Asymmetric, commensurate, or weak

    Difficulty in air attack, US involvement

  5. Why did they do that?

    Possibly US request, “Take the Win”

    Possibly Israel knows a multi front war is not winnable w/o nukes

  6. What will happen next?

    That’s the question.. no response, delayed response or coordinated response

    US Politics and Israeli politics matter

  7. ALL MSM Stories HERE

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek

Data on Deck:

  • MONDAY, APRIL 15 8:30 am U.S. retail sales March

  • TUESDAY, APRIL 16 8:30 am Housing starts 1:15 pm Fed Chair Powell speaks

  • WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17 2:00 pm Fed Beige Book

  • THURSDAY, APRIL 18 8:30 am Initial jobless claims

  • FRIDAY, APRIL 19 10:30 am Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks1


  • Goldman’s Analysis attached below

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