Housekeeping: Good Afternoon. Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with analytical comments transcribed, 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy.
“Wall St has now stopped BoJ hiking"
-Michael Hartnett
TL;DR
Wall Street stopped BOJ hikes
Small Biz Getting killed
Hard landing Technical Levels
Remain as sell the 1st rate cut
Whatever cut is, it likely wont be enough
Extended Comments: Start 28:31
Why Powell May not cut at all, or not until it is too late
Wall Street wants the Fed to Cut more now- Citi, JPM, GS, and now BOA
Zoltan identifying The “Unaccord’ between Yellen and Powell
Yellen’s Stealth QE undermines Powell’s Hikes
Powell now possibly ignoring Economic indicators surrounding Housing because of services inflation
The Yield Curve recently warned a rate cut would be inflationary-
The BOJ is really just an error account for the Fed
Hartnett’s Flow Show: The Prime of Strife
Scores on the Doors: crypto 17.2%, gold 16.9%, stocks 8.9%, oil 6.3%, HY bonds 4.7%, commodities 3.3%, cash 3.2%, IG bonds 1.9%, US$ 1.9%, govt bonds -0.8% YTD.
Zeitgeist: "The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate going forward", BoJ July 31st;
"The Bank will not raise its policy rates when markets unstable”, BoJ Aug 7th; painfully (biggest FX carry-trade loss since Mar'20 - Chart 3)
Wall St has now stopped BoJ hiking; Wall St's Aug/Sept goal now appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts.
