Hartnett Walkthrough: This Market is "One Bad Payroll Away from Cracking"

"If the Fed cuts and yields rise instead of falling, that is…hugely bullish crypto/commodities and hugely bearish US dollar."

Jul 28, 2024

∙ Paid

Housekeeping: Good Afternoon. The podcast portion is abbreviated.

Hartnett’s Flow Show: Peak Oligarchy

Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with analytical comments transcribed, 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy.

We are one bad payroll away from cracking monopolistic/oligopolistic dominance

-Michael Hartnett

Scores on the Doors: crypto 33.5%, gold 14.1%, stocks 11.0%, oil 9.3%, commodities 5.4%, HY bonds 4.4%, cash 3.0%, US dollar 2.9%, IG bonds 0.8%, govt bonds -3.1% YTD

The Biggest Picture: past 2 weeks gold (asset inflation play) -8% in Japanese yen (asset deflation play) as rates (Powell cuts) & politics (Trump wins) drive liquidation of world's most crowded trades (short yen, long copper, long AI); key levels to hold to confirm correction is "healthy"…yen (JPY) 152, copper (HG1) 9000, tech (NDX) 18700.