Housekeeping: Good afternoon. Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with commentary 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy. 1
“Nobody going into this election long 30-year Treasury, short gold [or] Nvidia.”
-Michael Hartnett
Summary/Overview
Trump winning victory is now consensus implying weaker bonds and a stronger USD post his winning. The problem is everyone knows that, and both Bonds and the USD have been moving decidedly in that direction for weeks.2 For Hartnett, the most contrarian trade is to be long bonds now that everyone is short them for various but related reasons tied to the election outcome.
Hartnett lays out the market biases as he sees them going into the election and tries to handicap their potential opposites occuring. Every conventional wisdom on the street —who wins, tariff effect, deficit neglect trades— has put a short bias on Bonds and a long USD. The reasons are somewhat different, but the trades are the same… which smells like a crowded trade if something doesnt hit up right.
GOLD COMMENT
Hartnett doesn’t say it more than once but Gold is vulnerable if Bonds are a contrarian buy.
