Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an Event
Today:
Fed Day: It’s not that complicated
Premium: Goldman’s Best CTA Analysis for Gold, Silver
Yesterday’s Activity:
US equities gained on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision
Market Commentary:
Decision: Cut, Hike, or remain the same
“the overwhelming consensus is for the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% on Wednesday... and also in May.”- ZeroHedge Comment: Word about Wall street analysts. They are incrementalists and swim in schools. Thus their changes are slow and steady which makes sense if your first assumptions are correct. But it’s bad if your basis concept is wrong. We’re in an era of broken correlations and models. Gold and bitcoin tell you that. When you get the big picture wrong, no amount of fine tuning will make you right, but it may save your job if everyone else is doing the same thing.
Dot plot: Outlook for future action for rest of year. Glide path
“The market's focus will be on the accompanying Dot Plot, with risks that the Fed may flip-flop again, this time hawkishly, and the 2024 median forecast may nudge higher to two cuts from December's three cuts”- ZeroHedge Written Statement: Nuanced changes in wording reflect evolution of fear
Speech: Can be a wild card if someone asks a proper question
Continues at bottom
Price Action
Gold-
Silver-
Miners-
Oil-
BTC/ETH-
The slam on BitMex was completely unwarranted but shows what someone will do to keep price down. Just like metals.
New buyers are scared for the first time. Smart buyers know more of this can come.- just ike they did in metals
The result is lowered bids, patience returning, and possibly a lower range is being determined to give them time to buy what they need to buy for ETF buyers.
We have some good analysis on the space we’ll be sharing later today in Premium
Bottom Line: A cornered TradFi rat will do desperate things… if you expect surrender, you are mistaken.. rationing, FUD, delayed execution, Fast markets.. they have many tools to win. And if they lose, they will make sure they hurt you most as they once again beg for Government puts.
Stocks-
Bonds-
Dollar-
Market News:
"Meta says it’s offered to reduce the price of its ad-free subscription for Instagram and Facebook in Europe to address regulatory concerns, Source: The Verge- put ads in it, and charge nothing?
"The government of Saudi Arabia plans to create a fund of about $40 billion to invest in artificial intelligence... the latest sign of the gold rush toward a technology that has already begun reshaping how people live and work. Source: NYT- silicon valley will follow the money
"Microsoft has hired Mustafa Suleyman, the co-founder of Google’s DeepMind and chief executive of artificial intelligence start-up Inflection, to run a new consumer Source: FT-
"Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday that investments in artificial intelligence computing remain in the early innings, predicting years of growth ahead as the technology affects a range of industries including health care... Source: CNBC
"Chipotle Mexican Grill’s stock rose more than 2% in extended trading Tuesday after the fast-casual restaurant chain said its board has approved a 50-for-1 stock split. Source: MarketWatch- democratization of gambling
GEOPOLITICS
China's embassy in the Philippines said US Secretary of State Blinken's remarks about the South China Sea ignored facts and groundlessly accused China regarding its activities in the South China Sea.
Taiwan's Foreign Minister said China has built "enormous" military bases on three islands surrounding Taiwan's main holding in the South China Sea, according to Reuters.
US Air Force said it conducted a successful hypersonic weapons test, according to Reuters.- Metals
North Korea leader Kim guided a solid fuel engine test for a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile, according to KCNA.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, MARCH 1810:00 am Home builder confidence indexTUESDAY, MARCH 198:30 am Housing startsWEDNESDAY, MARCH 20 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision 2:30 pm Fed Chair Powell press conference
THURSDAY, MARCH 21 8:30 am Initial jobless claims, U.S. PMI 10:00 am U.S. LEI, Existing home sales
FRIDAY, MARCH 22 None scheduled 2
Premium:
(Sent earlier this morning)
