Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today
Discussion: Syrian Geopolitics
Premium: WGC on China Gold
Discussion:
Syria is a tollbooth between the ME and Europe…
Iran’s influence extends to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi in a crescent shape…
Russia’s friendship with Iran affords them Syrian port access in return for Hamas support….
(You think those Hamas hanggliders taught themselves in Gaza?)
Russian “Even Steven” - An overview of Russias access to the Atlantic via warm water…
Since Syria’s fall Israel and Turkey are both executing land grabs buffer zones…
Why This is all happening…
Which closes the book on why the Nordstream pipeline was blown up…
No Gas for Europe From Russia…
The US, and EU want Peace. Russia may as well now…
Other Implications:
China-Russia relationship- make Russa weaker, makes China careful
Marginal BRICS will think again
Markets….
On Deck: Taiwan…
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at new highs on Friday after a better than expected November jobs report. Large caps and small caps advanced: S&P 500 (+0.25%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.54%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) edged down 0.16% and 0.01% respectively.
Market News: Assad Setback for Russia
"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and fled the country, according to the Russian foreign ministry, after a stunning offensive by rebels who seized the capital city of Damascus on Sunday. Amid scenes of jubilation in the streets, the rebels proclaimed that “the city of Damascus is free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad” and that “Assad has fled” after various factions encircled the capital from the north and the south." Source: FT
"Generative artificial intelligence probably won’t change your life in 2025 — at least, not more than it already has, according to Google CEO Sundar Pichai. CNBC
“President-elect Donald Trump said he has no plans to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once he returns to the White House, saying “I don’t see it.” Source: Bloomberg
"The jobs report for November came in better than expected, and that growth came from several different areas of the U.S. economy CNBC
Politics/Geopolitics: Land Grab
Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Syria's ousted President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, according Russian state media. Kremlin sources suggested a deal has been done to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters.
Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, "marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War", according to Israeli officials cited by NYT
Israeli military was instructed to seize the buffer zone and control points in order to ensure the protection of all Israeli communities in the Golan Heights, according to Israeli Defense Minister Katz.
Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels, according to Kann's Stein.
Israel's Channel 13 said "The Israeli army is considering continuing the incursion into Syrian territory to expand the buffer zone in the Golan., according to Sky News Arabia.
Israel's Channel 13 said "Israeli intelligence is monitoring what is happening in Iran for fear that the collapse of the axis loyal to it will push it to develop nuclear weapons", according to Sky News Arabia.
"US administration officials fear that Assad's fall will increase pressure on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to give the green light to produce a nuclear bomb.", according to Kann News.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fall of Assad was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel, and added that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on its borders, according to Reuters.
Hezbollah pulled all forces out of Syria on Saturday, according to Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters.
US encouraged Iraq to not get drawn into Syrian unrest, according to a Senior US official cited by Reuters, and US has been in discussions with Turkish officials and US focus is "a new Syria". Senior US official does not see role for US troops on the ground addressing chemical weapons in Syria.
US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State camps in central Syria on Sunday, and struck over 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said the US will support Syria's neighbours through period of transition, and will speak with leaders in region in coming days and send administration officials, according to Reuters.
US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said they are still fighting Turkish-backed forces in Syria's Manbij, according to Reuters.
Iran said it will monitor developments in Syria and the region closely, and will adopt appropriate approaches and positions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, adding that the long-standing and friendly relations between the Iranian and Syrian nations are expected to continue.
"Iranian Foreign Minister: Conflicts are expected to spread not only to Iraq but to the entire region", according to Sky News Arabia.
President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy met Israel and Qatar PMs to broker a ceasefire, according to the FT.
US president-elect Trump said there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in Ukraine this is time for Russia's Putin to act, and China can help, via Truth Social.
US president-elect Trump, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had "very good conversation" over the weekend, according to a source close to Macron cited by Reuters.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday China has almost doubled the number of warships around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, ahead of what is suspected to be a new round of war games, according to Reuters.
Taiwan Defence Ministry said it instructed troops to closely monitor situation, maintain high alert on Chinese PLA drills; have raised alert level on Taiwan's outlying islands; activated combat readiness drills to carry out at strategic locations, according to Reuters.
Chinese military and coast guard boats have entered waters around Taiwan and the Western Pacific to carry out missions, according to Reuters.
Taiwan Coast Guard said seven Chinese Coast Guard ships began conducting “grey-zone harassment' against Taiwan from early Monday, according to Reuters.
China currently has almost 90 navy and coast ships in the waters near Taiwan, Southern Japanese islands, East and South China Seas, according to Reuters.
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, DEC. 9 10:00 am Wholesale inventories
TUESDAY, DEC. 10 8:30 am U.S. productivity (revision)
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 11 8:30 am Core CPI
THURSDAY, DEC. 12 8:30 am Core PPI Nov.
FRIDAY, DEC. 13 8:30 am Import price index1
FINAL MARKET CHECK…
