Market Implications of Trump Assassination Attempt

Michael Oliver: Momentum Has Spoken, Price Agrees. Here's What's Next

VBL

Jul 15, 2024

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Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Gold Revaluation is a process not an event.

Today:

Premium: Taking Stock of Gold and Silver
Commentary: Trump assassination attempt implications

Equity Recap:

US equities advanced on Friday as weaker than expected inflation data raised hopes of Fed rate cuts this year.

Premium / Markets:

MSA: on Gold and Silver

Explains where we are
Retraces the steps of how we got here using price action and chronology
Describes that given the current lay of the land where we are going.
Gives perspective

Gold’s long-term momentum has already spoken. Nothing more to add. Price now also speaks.

Gold’s long-term momentum trend factors have since had nothing more to say. Just a chorus that argues the acceleration phase of this now eight-and-a-half-year bull trend has begun

Where and when we are likely going:

MSA offers only one further level to watch. When gold clears $2500 by some credible amount on a monthly close, we expect to see this already evident acceleration action to take on an even steeper and more rapid angle of ascent—with a dramatic price outcome in the next few quarters

Silver: again price speaks (lagged to momentum, which has already spoken)

Congestion from the early 2021 high to this year was finally ending occurred in April

We strongly suspect that if gold does move into the $2500s (fully taking out its recent horizontal highs), then silver will also likely punch out its $32.75 high of late May. Upside price drama will likely become the norm then.

Continues in Premium

Market News:

"As world financial markets started to reopen after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, one thing seemed likely: The Trump trade will get even more momentum. The series of wagers — based on anticipation that the Republican’s return to the White House would usher in tax cuts, higher tariffs and looser regulations — had already been gaining ground since President Joe Biden’s poor performance in last month’s debate... But the trades were expected to take deeper hold." Source: Bloomberg

"Federal Reserve officials have sent the strongest signals yet that they are preparing to cut interest rates Source: FT

"China’s real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — Source: CNBC

"Goldman Sachs has lodged an appeal with the US Federal Reserve challenging its result in the regulator’s most recent “stress test”, which is set to force the Wall Street bank to hold a greater amount of capital..Source: FT

"Kuwait Oil said it’s discovered “huge commercial amounts” of light oil and associated gas in an offshore field, marking a “turning point” in its efforts to explore offshore hydrocarbons...Source: Bloomberg

Geopolitics: China Plenum/ South Sea Naval Drills

A person was killed and two people were wounded in a suspected assassination attempt that took place at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday which injured Donald Trump in the ear although Trump was said to be okay. It was later announced that the gunman who was killed by the Secret Service was identified as 20-year-old registered Republican Thomas Matthew Crooks. Furthermore, Trump said that he looks forward to speaking from Wisconsin this week and that it is more important than ever that they stand united.

Two Egyptian sources said Gaza talks have stopped until the Israeli side demonstrates that it is serious
Israeli strikes on Gaza City killed at least 17 and wounded 50, according to health officials.
Syrian army said one soldier was killed and three others were injured in Israeli strikes on military sites and a residential building in Damascus.
Yemen’s Houthis said they conducted military operations in the Gulf of Aden and Israel’s Eilat.
US State Department announced on Friday new sanctions targeting Iran's chemical weapons research and development.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia is able to respond to the US deploying long-range missiles in Europe, while he warned that European capitals could be victims of the US placing long-range missiles in Europe, according to TASS.
Chinese and Russian naval fleets recently conducted the 4th joint sea patrol in the western and northern Pacific Ocean, according to Chinese state media.

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek