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Michael Oliver says "Not Just Another Gold Bull trend."

Important Message for Metals Bulls

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

BW3 is a Process, Not an Event.


  • Premium: an important update excerpted from Michael Oliver’s MSA Weekly Report

  • Commentary: We’ve come a long way, We have a long way to go

Markets Yesterday:

US equities were mixed on Monday, but the Nasdaq Comp closed at a new high as Nvidia rallied ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday


Regarding the monetary metals acceleration and our analysis of those markets

Authored by Michael Oliver for MSA

We now argue that gold and related are entering the more dramatic phase of their bull trend.

Furthermore, we argue that this bull trend is of greater magnitude and significance than prior bull trends, especially when compared to the external economic, social, and political factors that were then in play (from the mid to late 1970s and from 2000 to 2011). This is not just another gold bull trend.

We’ve noticed that most market-research/timing reports, even those that claim a positive bias towards gold, have been skeptical of the recent advance. Many have urged their subscribers to “take profits” repeatedly, here and there, and often expressed doubt that this surge is sustainable. That’s the sort of advice that has tended to move many gold investors out of the market based on “being cautious.”

MSA will be alert to any credible correction, but we don’t want to scare our subscribers out of what will likely be the most significant investment decision of their lives—that is, being in the current monetary metal advance.


Market News:

WSJ's Timiraos posted that Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% in April from a year earlier, while he added that most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April which would put the 6-month annualised rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2%.

US FDIC Chairman Gruenberg told staff he plans to step down after a successor is confirmed, according to a WSJ reporter post on X. It was later reported that a White House spokesperson stated President Biden will soon put forward a new nominee for FDIC chair.

"Jamie Dimon told investors on Monday that the search for his eventual successor was “on the way” as the longtime JPMorgan Chase chief executive indicated that he would step down as CEO within five years." Source: FT

"Microsoft is touting new computers with advanced chips designed to run artificial intelligence features of software for Windows, without quickly using up battery life. Source: CNBC- software vs hardware.. apple msft competition


  • Israeli media on a source said National Security Advisor "Sullivan after meeting Netanyahu felt there was no strategy to end the war", via Al Arabiya

  • "Israel has decided to shelve plans for a major offensive in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, and will act in a more limited manner in the city, after discussions with the US on the matter", via Times of Israel citing WaPo analyst's sources.

  • US President Biden said what's happening in Gaza is not genocide and the US wants Hamas beaten, according to Reuters and Times of Israel.

  • US top general said they are confident Ukraine has not used long-range US weaponry inside of Russia.

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek

Data on Deck: Chill Out

  • MONDAY, May 20 Speakers

  • TUESDAY, MAY 21 Speakers

  • WEDNESDAY, MAY 22 2:00 pm Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting (stale)

  • THURSDAY, MAY 23 PMI May 51.6 51.3 9:45 am

  • FRIDAY, MAY 24 8:30 am Durable-goods orders April 1



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