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Morning Markets: Unimpressed with “Year of the Dragon” So Far

The “Year of the Dragon” may be here, but it’s not exerting the firepower that commodities are craving just yet.

Housekeeping: Good Morning.


“”Commodities have greeted China’s return from its Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays in fairly sombre mood, signalling investors want to see further evidence that the authorities are tackling the economy’s deep-seated woes before turning constructive. The “Year of the Dragon” may be here, but it’s not exerting the firepower that commodities are craving just yet.”

-MUFG Report (attached)


Contents

  1. Current Prices

  2. Yesterday’s Activity

  3. Data Due

  4. News

  5. Markets/Metals Commentary

  6. Attached:


Chart of Day:


Yesterday’s Activity:

  • Precious Metals- Gold peaked higher and found selling once again, Silver met selling all day

  • Oil/NG- firm, but fading

  • US equities- no roof in sight

  • Bonds- Choppy with no real direction

  • DX- weak open, strong close

  • Crypto-weaker.. still range bound and uncoupling from stocks


Week’s Data:

  • MONDAY, FEB. 19 None scheduled, President's Day holiday

  • TUESDAY, FEB. 20 10:00 am U.S. leading economic indicators Jan. -0.1%

  • WEDNESDAY, FEB. 21 2:00 pm Minutes of Fed's January FOMC meeting

  • THURSDAY, FEB. 22 Jobless claims, PMI Feb.

  • FRIDAY, FEB. 23 None scheduled

Full calendar1


News:

Top MSM News Links Here

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Fed's Cook (voter) said she would like to have greater confidence that inflation is converging to 2% before beginning to cut the policy rate and believes risks towards achieving employment and inflation goals are moving into a better balance, while she now sees two-sided risks in considering monetary policy. - breaking the ice on hikes

  • Goldman Sachs pushed back its first Fed rate cut forecast to June from May and now only sees 4 cuts this year instead of 5 cuts.- more to come

  • White House announces more than 500 new sanctions against Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine- sanctions and annoying tipping points

GEOPOLITICS

  • US charged four mariners from an Arabian sea vessel transporting suspected Iranian-made advanced conventional weapons.- offsides

  • "Israeli Foreign Minister: We will not be patient for a longer period in order to reach a diplomatic solution on the Lebanese front", according to Sky News Arabia

  • China's envoy for Korean Peninsula affairs told US's North Korea affairs official that China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of issues concerning the Korean Peninsula and said all parties concerned should acknowledge the core of the Korean Peninsula issue, as well as address their concerns through balanced and meaningful dialogue, according to Reuters.

Some headlines via NewSquawk


Markets/Metals Commentary (Charts):

Comment: Election range trading.. perfect for Biden

  • Gold- capped. The buyer is done no-one will sell

  • Silver- sold all the way up against gold

  • Oil- also range bound

  • Stocks- broadening global rally

  • BTC/ETH- if stocks drop this could get ugly

  • Bonds- no feel

Premium Attached:

ING, MUFG, RABO

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GoldFix
GoldFix
Capital markets recap, commentary, and analysis for evolving traders