I would imagine if they took such a move that a Western counter-move would easily take this away. As embargoes/oil shocks are considered casus belli, such a move would greatly increase the risk for regional/global war (think of the Roosevelt's oil embargo of Japan in 1941).
Also, "Rational Self-Interest" is not a phrase that applies the same to a radically different culture with different values, mores, and interests. For many actors in the world theirs are not ours (and ours are diverse and theirs are likely diverse, but in different ways).
the key phrase is "If Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorses the move"
He's gotta be feeling extremely weak right now and hopefully the West is going to let him stew in his own juices for a while (I was hoping that Israel would have done the same to Nasrallah). There could be more short-term risk of retaliation, but unless it has a Siegfried & Roy in its bag of tricks, it shows their desperation and weakness.
The bigger (biggest?) question(s) in all of this as well is what is the desired policy of countries like the US, China, and Russia (actual policy, not theatrical PR posturing on the chess board)?
Most people have a comic book “Avengers” movie view as they dip their toes in geopolitics and they only listen to voices that seek profit, power and prestige From war and not the truth
This whole thing could blow up in Trump’s much needed american revival. Now they are talking regime change? This is not Iraq in 2003. You have China and Russia to potentially deal with. If we really cared about a dangerous country with nuke weapons why have we not bombed North Korea? They already have the missiles that can exit and reenter our atmosphere and hit the west coast. Maybe we want them to take out California first?
The problem following the media is exactly as you say, most people, including those who post on boards, don't know what is a PR move of a pawn vs movement of the queen on the board. It's more than likely that talk of regime change is meant to either a) rile up Pahlavi and the broader Iranian opposition by the various people to the Islamic Republic, or b) put pressure on Khameini to come back to the table (for real, not with all the games they play around 'negotiations'), c) have the same pressure cause the Ayatollahs to make a mistake...
And of course, option d) it blows up on the US is always a possibility.
But there is just as much chance or likelihood that if they're listened to their best anthropologists on staff (which I wonder whether this administration does such things) it could lead to benefits that aren't seen/expected by those in the restraintist or doomsayer camps.
This is why we watch and try to put as little ideology into it as possible (as real people, populations, governments, and world events don't often follow the oversimplistic models and thinking of even the highly educated / experienced people, let alone those with little to no education/experience).
If one studies all the major events we have had over the past 9 years you will start to understand that there are still many in power here that want Trump out and they have shown their colors before. Many traitors. Releasing a US funded and created virus on enemy soil and sending everyone a mail in ballot which “produced” magically 15 million more votes for Biden than Hillary, obama and Kamala did the trick. Pushing us into World War 3 is another trick. Anyone buying this? Oh yeah Iranians tried to kill him? Sounds like Bush Jr going into Iraq because Saddam put a hit on his POS CIA daddy.
I hope I am Wrong. Anyone remember USS Liberty 1967?
Much appreciated. I spent far too much time yesterday calculating the odds of various outcomes and what that would mean for the world and energy. There are a limited number of options here for all sides. Your conclusion adds to my confidence in my own work. Thank you.
Vince, China and Iran will make greater use of the railway that connects the two countries (through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan).
I would imagine if they took such a move that a Western counter-move would easily take this away. As embargoes/oil shocks are considered casus belli, such a move would greatly increase the risk for regional/global war (think of the Roosevelt's oil embargo of Japan in 1941).
Good point.
Good point.
Exactly, few even know it exists and, even though the capacity probably couldn't equal sea-borne tankers, it could still be a usable bypass.
Also, "Rational Self-Interest" is not a phrase that applies the same to a radically different culture with different values, mores, and interests. For many actors in the world theirs are not ours (and ours are diverse and theirs are likely diverse, but in different ways).
the key phrase is "If Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorses the move"
He's gotta be feeling extremely weak right now and hopefully the West is going to let him stew in his own juices for a while (I was hoping that Israel would have done the same to Nasrallah). There could be more short-term risk of retaliation, but unless it has a Siegfried & Roy in its bag of tricks, it shows their desperation and weakness.
The bigger (biggest?) question(s) in all of this as well is what is the desired policy of countries like the US, China, and Russia (actual policy, not theatrical PR posturing on the chess board)?
Most people have a comic book “Avengers” movie view as they dip their toes in geopolitics and they only listen to voices that seek profit, power and prestige From war and not the truth
This whole thing could blow up in Trump’s much needed american revival. Now they are talking regime change? This is not Iraq in 2003. You have China and Russia to potentially deal with. If we really cared about a dangerous country with nuke weapons why have we not bombed North Korea? They already have the missiles that can exit and reenter our atmosphere and hit the west coast. Maybe we want them to take out California first?
The problem following the media is exactly as you say, most people, including those who post on boards, don't know what is a PR move of a pawn vs movement of the queen on the board. It's more than likely that talk of regime change is meant to either a) rile up Pahlavi and the broader Iranian opposition by the various people to the Islamic Republic, or b) put pressure on Khameini to come back to the table (for real, not with all the games they play around 'negotiations'), c) have the same pressure cause the Ayatollahs to make a mistake...
And of course, option d) it blows up on the US is always a possibility.
But there is just as much chance or likelihood that if they're listened to their best anthropologists on staff (which I wonder whether this administration does such things) it could lead to benefits that aren't seen/expected by those in the restraintist or doomsayer camps.
This is why we watch and try to put as little ideology into it as possible (as real people, populations, governments, and world events don't often follow the oversimplistic models and thinking of even the highly educated / experienced people, let alone those with little to no education/experience).
And of course Eisenhower warned of this as well
https://youtu.be/CWiIYW_fBfY?si=O6P8_LV4kgpSyRGj
General Smedley Butler stopped a fascist coup in the federal govt in FDR’s presidency. His words should be heeded “war is a racket”
https://www.heritage-history.com/site/hclass/secret_societies/ebooks/pdf/butler_racket.pdf
If one studies all the major events we have had over the past 9 years you will start to understand that there are still many in power here that want Trump out and they have shown their colors before. Many traitors. Releasing a US funded and created virus on enemy soil and sending everyone a mail in ballot which “produced” magically 15 million more votes for Biden than Hillary, obama and Kamala did the trick. Pushing us into World War 3 is another trick. Anyone buying this? Oh yeah Iranians tried to kill him? Sounds like Bush Jr going into Iraq because Saddam put a hit on his POS CIA daddy.
I hope I am Wrong. Anyone remember USS Liberty 1967?
If I may.. Just watched Nima with Escobar and Marandi and they presented a suggestion for a selective blockage as well, like Yemen's one..
Much appreciated. I spent far too much time yesterday calculating the odds of various outcomes and what that would mean for the world and energy. There are a limited number of options here for all sides. Your conclusion adds to my confidence in my own work. Thank you.